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1、CONTRIBUTIONOFTHEETHANOLINDUSTRYTOTHEECONOMYOFTHEUNITEDSTATESIN2016PreparedfortheRenewableFuelsAssociationbyJohnM.UrbanchukManagingPartnerJanuary30,2017TheU.S.ethanolindustryexperiencedanotherrecord-breakingyearin2016despiteachallengingeconomicandregulatoryenvironment.Industryoutputth
2、roughOctober2016was3.5percentabove2015levelsandwaspoisedtosetanewrecordof15.2billiongallonsfortheyear.Americancorngrowersalsopostedarecordcropin2016,whichpushedfeedstockpriceslowerthroughouttheyeartothebenefitofethanolproducers.Averagecashmarketcornpricesduring2016were5.1percentlowert
3、hanayearearlier.Worldoilpricesalsodeclinedforallof2016leadingtolowergasolineandethanolprices.Ethanolprices(OmahaRack)were3.2percentlowerforthefullyear.1Onthedemandside,consumersrespondedtosharplylowerretailgasolinepricesbyincreasingconsumptionoffinishedmotorgasoline.Reflectingthis,dom
4、esticethanoluseincreased2.9percentduring2016torecordlevels.Meanwhile,exportmarketsprovedtobeoneofthebrightestelementsofdemand.Whilestillsmallrelativetodomesticuse,ethanolexportsposteda28percentincreasein2016andwereexpectedtotoponebilliongallons,thelargestlevelofexportsinsixyears.Howev
5、er,theethanolindustrycontinuedtofacebotheconomic,regulatory,andtradechallengesin2016.Theeconomicchallengesincludedfallingworldcrudeoilandrefinedproductprices.WestTexasIntermediatecrudeoilpricesbottomedoutat$30perbarrelinFebruary,thelowestmonthlyaveragepriceinmorethanadecade.Pricesstre
6、ngthenedduringtheyearbutaveragedan11.4percentdeclinefortheyear.Duringthissameperiod,ethanolprices(OmahaRack)weredown3.2percent.Aspointedout,feedstock(corn)pricesfellin2016,butco-productpricesweremixed.DDGSprices(10percentmoisture,Iowa)fell18.6percentwhilecorndistiller’soilpricesposted
7、an8.7percentgainfor2016.Theimpactofthesepricechangeswereunsettlingforethanolprofitability.AccordingtoIowaStateUniversity,1No.2YellowCorn,CentralIllinois;ethanolFOBIowaPlantandEthanolOmahaRack.SourceUSDA218PuebloRoad,Doylestown,PA18901Tel:215-230-18341netreturnsovervariablecostsforatyp
8、icalI
