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1、RealismandForeignPolicyAnalysisSTENRYNNING&STEFANOGUZZINI(aFrenchtranslationisforthcominginFrédéricCharillon(ed.),Politiqueétrangère:Nouveauxregards.Paris:PressesUniversitairesdeFrance,2002)TableofcontentI.Introduction..........................................................................
2、......................1II.ClassicalRealismversusForeignPolicyAnalysis?................................2TheonslaughtofFPA(2)ThepurposesandsubjectmatterofClassicalRealistForeignPolicyAnalysis(3)III.StateMotivation.................................................................................
3、.....6Defensiveandoffensivemotivationsincontemporaryrealisttheorizing(7)Onthepossibilityofasystematicrealistapproachtostatemotivation(10)IV.ForeignPolicyProcesses.......................................................................11Defensiverealismandthe(ir)rationalityofprocess(12)Neo-cla
4、ssicalrealismandtheprimacyofpower(14)V.Conclusion................................................................................................15References.....................................................................................................17AcknowledgementsWearegratefulfor
5、commentsandsuggestionsbyChrisBrowning,BarryBuzan,TarjaCronberg,UllaHolm,AnnaLeander,OleW?ver.RealismandForeignPolicyAnalysisSTENRYNNING&STEFANOGUZZINII.IntroductionPowerpolitics,realistsagree,isplayedbyall,beitforreasonsofhumannatureand/orinternationalanarchy.Butcanonededucefromthisgeneralqu
6、estforpoweratheoryonstatemotivations?Recentrealisttheoriesseemtoagreewiththisideaingeneral,butdisagree,indeedhaveoppositeclaims,aboutitscontent.KennethWaltz(1979)arguesthatstatesaredefensiveandthus“balance,”whileJohnMearsheimer(1990)contendsthatstatesareoffensiveandtherefore“expand.”Classica
7、lrealists,asusual,allowformorecommonsenseandhencevariety.HansMorgenthau(1948)thusincludedbothstatusquoandimperialistpowersinhistheory.Buttheimplicationofthisindeterminacyremains:ifrealistscannotsettlethequestionwhichstatemotivationcanbederivedfromh
