整車訂單論文：整車訂單交付周期優(yōu)化研究

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1、整車訂單論文：整車訂單交付周期優(yōu)化研究【中文摘要】在汽車行業(yè)里,訂貨提前期有一個專門的名詞與之對應(yīng)——即“訂單—交付”周期(下稱OTD,Order-To-Delivery)。訂單交付OTD是近年來在汽車行業(yè)里伴隨著精益思想出現(xiàn)的,打破長期以來陳舊的“庫存計劃推動”生產(chǎn)方式,建立新的“訂單拉動”生產(chǎn)方式的重要手段。作為中國汽車工業(yè)的重要領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)之一的上海通用汽車(下稱SGM,ShanghaiGenerfalMotors),為了應(yīng)對未來汽車行業(yè)面臨的挑戰(zhàn),進一步提高運營效率,降低成本,提高產(chǎn)銷量,希望運用約束理論(下稱TOC,TheoryofConstraint),從全局出發(fā),

2、挖掘公司運營業(yè)務(wù)鏈的制約因素和瓶頸,集中資源,持續(xù)改進。本文結(jié)合國內(nèi)整車行業(yè)訂單交付OTD的特點和運作實踐,對整車銷售預測關(guān)鍵技術(shù)作了深入研究,提出了一套將定量計算技術(shù)與定性分析技術(shù)集成的整車銷售預測優(yōu)化方法論。為了驗證這一方法論的有效性和適用性,本文結(jié)合SGM的實際業(yè)務(wù)和相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對其進行了實證研究,取得了令人滿意的效果。本文結(jié)合企業(yè)實務(wù),利用所提出的方法論執(zhí)行了一次完整的整車訂單管理和庫存管理優(yōu)化過程,完成了對理論技術(shù)的實證分析。本文旨在研究和探索從過去以“推動”為主的產(chǎn)銷模式,逐步轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐浴袄瓌印睘橹鞯漠a(chǎn)銷模式,縮短訂單交付周期,構(gòu)建以客戶為中心的以銷定產(chǎn)的戰(zhàn)略管理體

3、系。從而提升對市場需求快速響應(yīng)能力和產(chǎn)銷協(xié)同能力?！居⑽恼縄nautomoblileindustry,vehicleorderleadtimehasaspecificnonetocorresponding,thatisordertodelivery(OTD).VehicleOTDinautomobileindustryoccursalongwithleanthoughtsinrecentyears,whichbreakslongdated“invertorypushplan”modeofproductionandbuildnewimportantmeansof“orde

4、rpull”modeofproduction.Inordertocopewithfutureautomobileindustryfacingchallenges,ShanghaiGerneralMotors(SGM),asoneoftheChineseautomobileindustry’simportantleaders,wantstofurtherimproveoperationalefficiency,reducecostandboostproductionaswellassalesvolume.SGM,settingoutfromoverallsituation,h

5、opestousetheoryofconstraints(TOC)tominecompany’soperatingbusinesschainconstraintsandbottlenecks,soastopoolingresourcesandimprovingcontinuously.Withdomesticautomobileindustry’svehicleOTDcharacteristicandpractice,thisarticlefurtherstudiesonkeytechnologyofvehiclessalesforecast,putforwardaseto

6、fquantitativecalculationandqualitativeanalysisoftechnologyintegrationofvehiclesalesforecastoptimizationmethodology.Inordertoverifythismethodologicalvalidityandapplicability,thearticlecombineswithSGM’sactualbusinessandrelateddatas,carriesonanempiricalresearchandachievessatisfactoryresults.C

7、ombinedwithpractice,thearticleusesproposedmethodologytoperformacompletevehicleordermanagementandinventorymanagementoptimizationprocess,andcompleteonthetheoryoftechnologyempiricalanalysis.Thearticleaimstostudyandexploregraduallychangefromthepast“push”modeofprod