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1、審國(guó)摩虧c童據(jù)2015，31(17)：202—208ChineseAgriculturalScienceBulletin衛(wèi)星資料在山西暴雨數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)中的初步應(yīng)用董春卿，苗愛梅，王揚(yáng)，郭媛媛，劉宇慶(山西省氣象臺(tái)，太原030006)摘要：旨在應(yīng)用衛(wèi)星云頂數(shù)據(jù)改進(jìn)數(shù)值模式的水汽初始場(chǎng)，探討利用衛(wèi)星資料改進(jìn)定量降水預(yù)報(bào)的可能性。利用ADAS(ARPSDataAnalysisSystem)~合云分析系統(tǒng)，將靜止衛(wèi)星云頂亮溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)加入到WRF中尺度模式中，對(duì)20t3年7月9日夜間山西南部一次暴雨過程進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬和對(duì)比試驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明：此次強(qiáng)降水過程發(fā)生在高空槽引導(dǎo)西北渦東移的環(huán)流背
2、景下，低渦切變線附近生成的中．肽度強(qiáng)對(duì)流云團(tuán)是造成此次強(qiáng)降水的直接影響系統(tǒng)。融合衛(wèi)星云頂數(shù)據(jù)改善了模式24h降水預(yù)報(bào)效果，有效減少?gòu)?qiáng)降水的空?qǐng)?bào)，顯著提高暴雨以上強(qiáng)降水的預(yù)報(bào)效果。進(jìn)一步分析表明：融合衛(wèi)星云頂數(shù)據(jù)后，模式可以獲取中尺度系統(tǒng)信息，可以捕捉中．度強(qiáng)對(duì)流云團(tuán)；模式有效加強(qiáng)了對(duì)降水有重要影響的高濕區(qū)的分析，動(dòng)力場(chǎng)能夠快速協(xié)調(diào)適應(yīng)；模式更加有效地預(yù)報(bào)出未來3h內(nèi)降水模態(tài)的變化和移動(dòng)，顯著改善了強(qiáng)降水的臨近預(yù)報(bào)效果。關(guān)鍵詞：衛(wèi)星資料；綜合云分析；暴雨；數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)中圖分類號(hào)：P435+．1文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A論文編號(hào)：casbl5030150PreliminaryAppli
3、cationofSatelliteDatainNumericalPredictionofTorrentialRaininShanxiDongChunqing，Mi／~oAimei，WangYang，GuoYuanyuan，LiuYuqing(ShanxiMeteorologicalObservatory，Taiyuan030006)Abstract：InordertoimprovethewatervaporinitialfieldofnumericalmodelandQPF(quantitativeprecipitationforecast)withthesatel
4、litedatafusion，thenumericalsimulationandsensitivityexperimentweremadeonashort—termsevereprecipitationprocessoccurredinsoutheasternShanxiProvinceatnightofJuly9，2013．Theresuhsshowedthat：thenorthwestlowvortexmovingeastwardwiththeupper—leveltroughguidingwasthecirculationbackgroundforthisse
5、vereprecipitation，andtheshort—termsevereprecipitationprocesswasmainlyaffectedbythelow—levelvortexaccompaniedbywindshear，whilethemeso一盧scaleconvectioncloudsystemwhichgeneratedneartheshearlinewasthedirectsystem．Precipitationforecastfor24hours，especiallyforecastofsevereprecipitation，could
6、beimprovedsignificantlybycloudtopdatafusion．Furtherstudyindicatedthat：cloudtopdatafusioncouldcontributetoobtainingtheinformationofmesoscalesystemsandfindingoutthemeso一scaleconvectioncloudcluster；withthecloudtopdatafusion，numericalmodelcouldbetterdepictthemesoscalecharacteristicofrealhu
7、midityfield，significantlyenhancetheanalysisofhighhumidityregionswhichhadanimportantinfluenceonthesevereprecipitation；numericalmodelcouldmoreeffectivelyforecastthechangeandmovementofprecipitationfor3hours，whichwouldsignificantlyimprovetheeffectofrainstormnowcasting．Keywords：satellited
