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1、Chapter18PartialIdenti?cationandSensitivityAnalysisMarkusGanglAbstractThischapterisconcernedwithmethodsofcausalinferenceinthepresenceofunobservedconfounders.Threeclassesofestimatorsarediscussed,namely,localidentiTcationusinginstrumentalvariables,sensitivityanalysis,andestimationofnonpa
2、rametricbounds.Ineachcase,theresponsetothecoreidentiTcationproblemistoretreatfromthestandardfocusonpointidentiTcationoftheaveragetreatmenteffect,yetthethreeapproachescharacteristicallydifferintermsofalternativequantitiesofinterestthatareconsideredempiricallyestimableundermorerestrictiv
3、ecircumstances.ThechapterdevelopsthebasicprinciplesunderlyingthethreeclassesofpartialidentiTcationestimatorsandillustratestheirempiricalapplicationwithananalysisofearningsreturnstoeducation.IntroductionDuetodifTcultiesofpracticalimplementationandethicalconcernsaboutthedesirabilityofsoc
4、ialexperimentationbutalsorootedingenuineepistemicinterestinpopulation-levelinference,observationaldesignsarethenorminmanyTeldsofempiricalsocialresearch.Whenaimingforcausalinference,socialscientistshencetypicallyrecordputativecausesandoutcomesofinterestthroughsurveys,observation,content
5、analysis,orotherdatacollectionmethodsbutdonotresorttoactivemanipulationofcausesinordertolearnaboutpotentialeffects.Asaconsequence,causalinferencerequiresresearcherstounderstandprocessesthatgovernthereal-worldincidenceofcausallyrelevanteventsandconditionsinordertosustainanyclaimthat,oth
6、erthingsequal,aparticularcauseofinterestistypicallyfollowedbysomeoutcome.Andsincethoserelevantconditionsoftreatmentassignmentneedtobeexplicitlymeasuredinobservationalstudies,causalinferenceinsocialresearchinevitablyinvolvesconsiderablesubject-matterinputaswellaspotentiallywidelydiffere
7、ntviewsonhowtoadequatelyidentifyaparticularcausaleffectofinterest.SocialscientistsareinfactacutelyawareofthedifTcultiesinvolvedininferringcausalrelationshipsfromobservationaldata.Researchersarebroughtuponwarningsthatcorrelationdoesnotequalcausation,andthatrelevantconfounderorsuppress
