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1、ExportandEconomicGrowthinChina：ADemand-OrientedAnalysisExportandEconomicGrowthinChina:ADemand-OrientedAnalysisJustinYifuLinYongjunLiNo.E27><0<02<0<09December5,2<0<02Abstract:Manystudies,basedontheaccountingidentifyofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),foundthatthecontri
2、butionofforeigntradetoChina’seconomicgrowthoverthepast2<0yearswasverysmall.Inthispaper,were-examinetheissueandfindthatthosestudiesunderestimatethecontributionofexportstoGDPgrowthbyoverlookingtheindirectimpactsofexportsondomesticconsumption,investment,governmen
3、texpendituresandimports.WeproposeanewestimationmethodandfindthatatenpercentincreaseinexportsresultedinaonepercentincreaseinGDPinthe199<0sinChina,whenbothdirectandindirectcontributionsareconsidered.Keywords:Economicgrowth,Internationaltrade,Export,GrowthAccount
4、ingExportandEconomicGrowthinChina:ADemand-OrientedAnalysisJustinYifuLinPekingUniversityandHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnologyAndYongjunLiPekingUniversityAbstract:Manystudies,basedontheaccountingidentifyofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),foundthatthecontributiono
5、fforeigntradetoChina’seconomicgrowthoverthepast2<0yearswasverysmall.Inthispaper,were-examinetheissueandfindthatthosestudiesunderestimatethecontributionofexportstoGDPgrowthbyoverlookingtheindirectimpactsofexportsondomesticconsumption,investment,governmentexpend
6、ituresandimports.WeproposeanewestimationmethodandfindthatatenpercentincreaseinexportsresultedinaonepercentincreaseinGDPinthe199<0sinChina,whenbothdirectandindirectcontributionsareconsidered.Keywords:Economicgrowth,Internationaltrade,Export,GrowthAccountingSinc
7、eChina’sinitiationoftheeconomicreformsandtheadoptionofitsopendoorpolicy,foreigntradeinChinahasexperiencedrapidgrowth.In1978,thetotalvalueofbothimportsandexportsequaledUS$2<0.64billion.By2<0<01,thisnumberincreasedtoUS$5<09.8billion.Onaverage,theannualgrowthrate
8、offoreigntradehasbeenashighas15%,5.5percentagepointshigherthanChina’s9.5%annualGDPgrowthrateoverthecorrespondingperiod.TherelationshipbetweenChina’sforeigntradeandeconomicgrowthhas
