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1、我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的實(shí)證分析2013年第6期哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版)No.6,2013總第133期JOURNALOFHARBINUNIVERSITYOFCOMMERCESerialNo.133市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的實(shí)證分析陳增明余香楊貴軍2(1.福建商業(yè)高等專(zhuān)科學(xué)校工商管理系,福州35∞12;2.天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)研究中心,天津300222)摘要:進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來(lái),相對(duì)于投資,消費(fèi)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用較小,如何提高消費(fèi)以促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展是轉(zhuǎn)型期我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的重要問(wèn)題
2、?;诟母镩_(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)演變的基本特征,建立了我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的誤差修正模型。經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析結(jié)果顯示,城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有正向拉動(dòng)作用,城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用相對(duì)較大。由于居民消費(fèi)率持續(xù)偏低,要提高居民消費(fèi)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用,必須建立提振我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制。關(guān)鍵詞:城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi);經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng);居民消費(fèi)率;消費(fèi)傾向;誤差修正模型中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):F224.0,F(xiàn)126文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:A文章編號(hào):1671-7112(2013)06-儀削-07OnEtTectofChinaResident’sCo
3、nsumptiononEconomicGrowth112CHENZeng-ming,YUXiang,YANGGui-jun(1.DepartmentofBusinessAdministration,FujianCommercialCollege.Fuzhou350012China;2.ChinaCenterofEconomicsandStatisticsResearch,TianjinUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Tia町in300222China)Abstract:Inrecentyears.
4、theroleofChinaresident’sconsumptionislesssi伊ificantthaninvestmentforpromotingChina’seconomicgrowth.Forsocialandeconomicreforms,itisimportanthowtoboosttheconsumptiontomaintainsustainableandhealthydevelopmentofChina’seconomydur??ingtransformationperiod.Inthisarticle.th
5、echaracteristics舊'einducedin陀spectoftheevolutionofChinaresident’sconsumptionsinc理thereformandopeningup.ErrorcorrectionmodelisestablishedontheeffectofChineseurbanandruralresident’sconsumptiononChineseeconomicgrowth.Empiric海1analysisshows.urbanandruralresident’sco
6、nsumptionbothplaytheactivepartsinpromotingChina’seconomicgrowth,whileurbanresident’sconsumptionhasthecomparativelymoresignificanteffectontheeconomicgrowth.Astheresident’sconsumptionrateisatIhelowlevelforseveralyears,itisessential10establishlong-termmechanismtoboostth
7、eresidenl’sconsumptionwiththepurposeofenhancingeffectofresi??dent’sconsumptionontheChina’seconomicgrowth.Keywords:urbanandruralresident’sconsumption;economicgrowth;resident’sconsumptionrate;consumptiontrend;errorcorrectionmodel進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來(lái),消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)作式的轉(zhuǎn)變,降低了消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用
8、。用小于投資?!吨袊?guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒}(2011)的數(shù)據(jù)顯;消費(fèi)不足;尤其是;居民消費(fèi)不足;引起社會(huì)廣示,2002-2010年技資平均拉動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增泛關(guān)注。黨的十八大報(bào)告明確指出;加快建立擴(kuò)長(zhǎng)6.169毛,消費(fèi)平均拉動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)大消費(fèi)需求長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制,釋放居民消費(fèi)