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1、February2006Dr.ShaneTedjaratiManagingDirectorDeloitteConsulting-ChinaChina–AnExecutiveOverview2“Thenext3to5yearsmayrepresentthemostattractivewindowofopportunityforMNC’stowininChina”McKinseyResearch3Contents1ChinaOverview&MarketTrends2IndustryOverview3LessonsfromtheField4Chinahasexpeditede
2、conomicreforminthepastdecade,fuelingincreaseinGDPpercapitalatarateofover13%between1978to2002From1978whenChinaadoptedtheOpenDoorpolicy,ChineseeconomyhasexperiencedastonishinggrowthLaunchofChina’sOpenDoorPolicyBecomesamemberofIMEAppliestojoinGATTEliminateditsdualexchangerateAcceptedfullconv
3、ertibilityforcurrentaccounttransactionAnnouncedanoverallrestructuringofSOEsectorSubmittednewtariffandservicesoffersConcludedbilateralmarketaccessagreementwithUSAConcludedbilateralmarketaccessagreementwithEUBecomesamemberofWTOWorkinGATTWorkinggroupissuspendedfortwoyearsCAGR=13.65%YearRMBFo
4、rthefirsttimeinhistory,China’sGDPpercapitaexceededUS$1000(year2003)ABriefHistorySource:China-theracetomarket5China’seconomicgrowthin2003isestimatedtobe9.1%,outpacingthegovernmentexpectationGDPGrowsTrend2002GDP%breakdown:52.5%industry,14.5%agricultureand33%servicesChina’sGDPisexpectedtogro
5、wby8.4%in2004and7.8%in2005ThegrowthisboostedbyanupturninOECDgrowthandthecontinuedrelocationofmanufacturingcapacityfromhigher-costlocationsExportswillcontinuetogrowbymorethan15%ayearthroughouttheforecastperiod.However,thiswillstillrepresentaslowdownfromtheunusuallyhighrateofgrowthachievedi
6、n2003Investmentgrowthislikelytoslowsharplyin2004-05asthePBCseekstotightenthesupplyofcreditandthegovernmentbeginstoreininitspolicyofusingpublic-sectorinfrastructurespendingtoboostGDPgrowthActualTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitestimatesandforecastsSource:TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)Note:Th
7、edataof2003isestimatedbyNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSustainedeconomicgrowthisforeseeable,andisforecastedtobebetween7-8%WorldGDPCAGR(97-06)EconomicEnvironmentGDP6AsChinatransitionsfromacentrally-plannedeconomytoamarketeconomy,itfacesmanychallenges,leadingtomajor
