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1、ESKIMOPIE公司IPO估值17,May2010AlltrademarksareownedbySociétédesProduitsNestléS.A.,Vevey,Switzerland.Forover80years,theESKIMO?PIE?brandhascombinedsimpleingredientstobringyoufrozensnacksyourfamilyloves.Itallstartedbackin1921,whenschoolteacherandlocalcandyshopowne
2、rChristianKentNelsonwasinspiredbyalittleboy’sinabilitytodecidebetweenicecreamandacandybar.And—Eureka!—theideaforESKIMO?PIE?frozensnackswasborn.Nelson’sbrilliantideatocombinethetwotreatswasmatchedbyhisgeniusfordiscoveringawayofmakingchocolatesticktothefrozen
3、surfaceofanicecreambar.Therest,astheysay,ishistory.Andaverytastyoneatthat.Sincethen,theESKIMO?PIE?brandhasbeendelightingpeoplearoundtheglobewithdecidedlydeliciousfrozensnacks.Content1、Introduction2、公司IPO絕對估值3、相對估值4、Suggestion5、EndoftheEskimoPieStory附錄A股IPO估
4、值方法、程序及案例估值方法差異及應用IPO:initialpublicoffering1、DCF自由現金流估價模型我們嘗試使用公司自由現金流量折現得出的愛斯基摩派公司的獨立價值。從圖表上看,1991年至1993年(此后,公司進入了一個持續(xù)增長的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),1991-1993年高增長,年均30%,1994-2001按6%年增長,以后基本穩(wěn)定,長期增長率假設為2%)指包括公司股東權益和債權人、股東等長期利益相關者在內的現金流總和FCFF=EBIT×(1-稅率)+折舊-資本性支出-追加營運資本計算WACC公司自由現金
5、流FCFF公司自由現金流FCFF199119921993EBIT5,255,000.005,873,000.005,363,000.005,682,000.00稅率51.31%40.00%40.00%40.00%EBIT*(1-稅率)2,558,621.823,524,043.673,217,598.553,409,200.00加:折舊1,352,000.001,352,000.001,352,000.001,352,000.00減:資本支出1,311,000.000.001,000,000.00500,00
6、0.00加:營運資金的凈變動1,386,000.000.000.000.00FCFF3,985,621.824,876,043.673,569,598.554,261,200.00非現金性流動資本變化流動資本11,735,000.0011,735,000.0011,735,000.0011,735,000.00非現金性流動資本變化905,000.000.000.000.00FCFF3階段模擬增長估值第一階段1991E1992E1993EFCFF4,876,043.673,569,598.554,261,200
7、.00第二階段1994E1995E1996E1997E1998E1999E2000E2001EFCFF4,516,872.004,787,884.325,075,157.385,379,666.825,702,446.836,044,593.646,407,269.266,791,705.42FCFF估值現金流折現值(萬元)價值百分比第一階段10,929,486.0625.41%第二階段17,617,931.3140.96%第三階段(終值)14,467,620.7933.63%企業(yè)價值AEV43,015,03
8、8.16100.00%-凈債務2,000,000.00-4.65%總股本價值41,015,038.1695.35%股本(萬股)3,316,000.00每股價值(元)12.37FCFF敏感性測試敏感性測試敏感性測試結果長期增長率(g)WACC1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%12.50%14.9615.2315.5315.8616.2316.64