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1、Overweight（Maintained）ChinaPropertyCounter-Attacking,OpportunityOutweighsRisk11/25/2018AnalystJianSONGsongjian@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190518010002SFC:BMV912ContactNingxinYANyanningxin@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190118100175EconomyFluctuates,PoliciesStabilizeWithdownt
2、urnpressureoneconomy,monetarypolicywillmaintainprudent:Loosemoneytohedgeeconomydownturnandtightcredittopreventassetbubble.Fromde-leveragingtomaintain-leverage,therewouldbemorepoliciesintroducedtoboosteconomy,supportingprivatecompanies,likefeesandtaxredu
3、ction.ForChinaproperty,industryregulationwillinsiston“Houseisusedforlivingbutnotspeculation”,andthetargetisto“controlhouseprice”.Aftertwoyearsofadjustmentfortier-1andtier-2cities’housemarket,themoststrictpolicytendtoease,proppinguphousesales.MarketBackt
4、oNormal,MarketSharesConcentratingIndustryregulationcontinues,de-stockingcomestoanend.Thehousemarketisbacktonormal.ThegrowthrateforhousesalesandGFAisfalling,thesellthroughratedecreasesto50%.Meanwhile,landmarketisalsocoolingdown,withhighunsold-rateandlowp
5、remiumrate,mediumandsmallenterprisesaretendtowaitbutlargecompaniesaremoreactiveonacquiringland.Weforecastleadingcompaniestoachieveyearlyincreaseof10-20%oncontractsales,marketshareswillbemoreconcentrating.Thecertaintyforleadingcompaniesistheirsalesandear
6、nings.DifficultFinancing,DiversifiedCostDuetorestrictiononpropertycompanyfinancinginChinaandinterestraterisinginUS,financialcostforChinapropertycompaniesdiversifies,with300-400bpsincreaseforthosemediumandsmallcompanies.Butleadingcompaniesshowgreatadvant
7、ageinmaintainingmuchlowerfinancialcost.RMBdepreciationwouldalsodeterioratetheirP/Lthroughexchangeloss.Asawhole,thefinancingwindowisstillopen,andsalesturnoverisstillsmooth.Counter-Attacking,OpportunityOutweighsRiskLookingaheadto2019,uncertaintystillexist
8、sindomesticandinternationalenvironment,weshouldsticktothecertaintyofpropertyindustry.WemaintainOverweightonChinaProperty,bycounter-attacking,opportunitiesoutweighsriskin2019.Thebaseofdefenseisthehistoriclowvaluation,companies/sha
