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1、毒氣泄漏事故應(yīng)急疏散決策優(yōu)化模型研究隨著有毒化學(xué)品種類和數(shù)量的不斷增加，有毒化學(xué)品的泄漏事故頻發(fā)。重特大毒氣泄漏事故擴(kuò)散范圍廣、危害區(qū)域大，易造成大量的人員傷廣和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。為了避免毒氣對(duì)人員造成的傷害，必須對(duì)處丁危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域的人員進(jìn)行緊急疏散。如何快速的確定疏散范圍，確定應(yīng)急疏散的人員數(shù)量,使應(yīng)急疏散的成本最低是一線指揮人員急需解決的重要問(wèn)題。本文在經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)、高斯煙團(tuán)擴(kuò)散模型模擬的基礎(chǔ)上，計(jì)算毒氣泄漏擴(kuò)散影響區(qū)域，確定了應(yīng)急疏散范圍；討論了可通行性疏散路線的選擇和疏散路線的當(dāng)量長(zhǎng)度的概念，建立了基于齊區(qū)域危險(xiǎn)系數(shù)的疏散路線當(dāng)量長(zhǎng)度的計(jì)算模型，采用運(yùn)籌學(xué)中的動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃法求解最佳疏散路
2、徑；然后運(yùn)用運(yùn)籌學(xué)屮的線性規(guī)劃法建立最優(yōu)疏散模型，利用Lingo優(yōu)化軟件求解該模型，并以液氯鋼瓶泄漏事故為例，對(duì)其影響范圍內(nèi)的人員進(jìn)行了疏散，確定應(yīng)急疏散的最佳方案。經(jīng)實(shí)例驗(yàn)證表明：當(dāng)有毒氣體發(fā)生泄漏時(shí)，采用該法，可以為一線指揮人員準(zhǔn)確、快速地確定疏散區(qū)域和選擇最佳疏散路徑提供科學(xué)依據(jù)，為一線指揮人員最優(yōu)疏散方案決策提供理論指導(dǎo)。關(guān)鍵詞毒氣泄漏；應(yīng)急疏散；優(yōu)化模型；線性規(guī)劃法；LingoAbstractWiththeincreasingofthetypeandquantityofthetoxicchemicals,thetoxicchemicalsleakageacciden
3、tsarealsogrowingyearbyyear,particularlytheleakageaccidentofthetoxicgases.Theseaccidentshasnotonlycreatedlargezonesofdangerousdiffusionregion,butalsocausedheavycasualtiesandpropertylosses.Iftheleakageaccidentofthetoxicgasesoccurs,inordertoavoidsandreducestheinjuriesanddeaths,weshouldtakeanem
4、ergencyevacuation.Toreducetheemergencyevacuationcoststothelowest.It'sanimportantproblemthatthefrontlinecommandersshouldsolve:Howtoconfirmtheevacuationregionandhowmanypeopleshouldbeevacuated?ThispaperisbasedontheexperientialdataandtheanalogofGaussiandiffusionmodel,calculatesthepoisonousregio
5、nandtheemergencyevacuationregions.Then,theselectionofthefeasibilityoftheevacuationrouteandtheconceptoftheevacuationroutes9equivalentlengtharediscussed.Later,acalculationmodelthattheevacuationroutes'equivalentlengthbasedontheriskfactorsoftheemergencyzonesisestablished?Itadoptsthedynamicprogr
6、ammingofoperationsresearchtofindoutthebestevacuationroute,andusesthelinearprogrammingofoperationsresearchtoestablishthebestevacuationmodel.,afterthatitutilizesLingoOptimizationsoftwaretosolvethismodel,FinallyittakesaliquidChlorineleakageasanexample,whichhasevacuatedthepeoplewhoareinthepoiso
7、nousregionandestablishedthebestoption.Thecasestudyshowsthatthismethodcanbeascientificfoundationforcommanderstodeterminetheevacuationregionandthebestevacuationroute?Andthemethodalsocanbeatheoreticalguidanceforthemtomakethebestevacuationdecision.Keywordsto
