上海市交通能源消費(fèi)碳排放的測(cè)算與分解分析

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1、32?11????Vol.32?No.112012?11?ECONOMICGEOGRAPHYNov.?2012?????????????????????????????????（1.復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共管理與公共政策創(chuàng)新基地，中國(guó)上海200433；2.合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境工程學(xué)院，中國(guó)安徽合肥230009；3.復(fù)旦大學(xué)人口研究所，中國(guó)上海200433；4.復(fù)旦大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)系，中國(guó)上海200433）?????IPCC???Б????????????2000i2010?????????????????a???????????

2、?э???b?2000???????LMDI??????????????????????э??????????????????????①?????b???????????b????????????????????????b②??????????b?????????GDP???????????????????2004????????????????????????????????????????b??????????????????????IDML?????щ??A??????12U??????

3、.FBTVSFNFOUBOE%FDPNQPTJUJPO"OBMZTJTPO$BSCPO&NJTTJPOTPG5SBOTQPSUBUJPO*OEVTUSZJO4IBOHIBJ1234WUKai-ya?HECai-hong?WANGGui-xin?ZHANGHao?1.NationalInnovativeInstituteforPublicManagementandPublicPolicy?FudanUniversity?Shanghai200433?China?2.SchoolofResourcesandEn

4、vironmentalEngineering?HefeiUniversityofTechnology?Hefei230009?Anhui?China?3.InstituteofPopulationResearch?FudanUniversity?Shanghai?200433?China?4.DepartmentofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineering?FudanUniversity?Shanghai200433?China?"CTUSBDUOnthebasisofthestatistic

5、aldataoftheIPCCreports,thepapercalculatesthecarbonemissionsfromthetransportationindustryinShanghaiduring2000-2010,andthenanalyzesthetendencyforthechangesofcarbonemissionspercapitaandcarbonemissionintensity.Taking2000asthebaseyear,usingLMDIdecompositionmethod,thech

6、angeofcarbonemissionsfromtrafficenergyconsumptionhasbeendecomposed.Theresultsshow:(1)Thecarbonemissionintensityfromtrafficenergydecreased,withenergyintensityplayingamajorrole.Theeffectofenergystructuretothepromotionofreducingcarbonemissionintensitywasweak,butitapp

7、earedincreasingtrend.(2)Trafficcarbonemissionsincreasedyearbyyear.TheresidentpopulationandpercapitaGDPhadpromotingeffectsonincreasingtrafficcarbonemissions,alwaysproducingpositiveeffect.Except2004,energyintensityalwayshadnegativeeffect.Energystructurealwaysproduce

8、dnegativeeffect,havinganimportantroleforreducingcarbonemissions.,FZXPSETtransportationindustry;carbonemissions;LMDImodel;decompositionanalysis;Shanghai