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1、南京信息工程大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文AbstractWiththecontinuouslydevelopmentofeconomicandsocial,peoplehavegraduallypaidmoreattentiononthedisastersbroughtbythelocalshort-timeheavyrain.Higherpredictionaccuracyisalsoneeded.Becausetherearesignificantdifferencesofprecipitationeffi
2、ciencyamongdifferenttypesofheavyrain,classificationofprecipitationiscrucial.Therefore,accuratequantitativeprecipitationforecastbasedonheavyraintypeclassificationtechniqueswillbehelpfultoestablishtheheavyrainearlywarningcapacity,tominimizethecasualtiesa
3、ndeconomiclossesbroughtbytheshort-timeheavyrain,andfinallytoprotectthenationalsecurityandtherealityofeconomicdevelopment'sneeds.Inthispaper,WSR-88DDopplerweatherradar'sreflectivitydata,lightninglocalizationdata,andtemperatureprofiledataareusedtocompare
4、theevolution,convectivestructure,andlightningactivityintheshort-timeheavyraincaseswithonehourrainfall^20mm)fortheperiodofJunetoNovember2010.ThreemajortypesofbriefheavyrainproducingstormsarefoundintheShanghaiarea:warmstratiformclouds,warmconvectivecloud
5、-dominated,andcoldconvectivecloud-dominated.ThecomparisonsaremadefortheradarreflectivityandVIL(verticallyintegratedliquid)betweenseverallevels,lightningactivities,theheightofseveraltemperature.Theresultsshow:(1)VIL(below0°C,heightof0-1km,0-2km,0-3kmand
6、0-4km),averagereflectivity(heightofl-2km,2-3kmand3-4km)inthelowlayers,andthemaximumreflectivityhaveaclosepositivecorrelationwithrainfallrate;(2)VTL(above0°C,-10°Cand-20°C),averagereflectivity(heightof5-6km,6-7kmand7-8km)inthehighlayers,VIL,totalcloud-t
7、o-groundlightning(CG)flashes,negativecloud-to-groundlightning(NCG)flashesplayanimportantroleinidentifyingthestormtypes.(3)RainratehasaclosecorrelationwithCGandpositiveCGfrequencyincoldconvectivecloud-dominatedbriefheavyrainfall,inwhichNegativeCGisdomin
8、antandthehighertheproportionofnegativeCGthestrongerprecipitation.Thirtyfourforecastingfactorsareselectedinamultiplestepwiseregressionmethodtocreatepredictionequationforthethreetypesofprecipitation.Threeverificationscores:CSI(CriticalSuc
