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1、摘要IIAbstractCultivatedlandresourcesisthemostvaluablematerialfoundationformaintainingtheecologicalentirement,survivalanddevelopment9fthehumanbeings.Inrecentdecades,withtherapiddevelopmentofoursocietyandeconomy,allkindsofconstructhaveoccupiedlotsofcultivatedland,especiallyhigh—qualitycult
2、ivatedland,whichmakesthequantityofcultivatedlandkeptonincreasingandthequalitydecreasing.Againstthebackground,conductingearlywarningofcultivatedlandresourcessecurityisofgreatsignificanceinensuringChina’Sfoodsecurity,promotingtherationalallocationofcultivatedlandresourcesandalleviatingthe
3、contradictionbetweenhuamansandland.Onthebasisofdrawinglessonsfromforeignanddomestictheories,researchmethodsandresearchfruits,thepaper,fromtherespectiveoftheconceptsandconnotationofcultivatedlandresourcessecurity,attemptstoestablishtheearlywamingsystemfromthefollowingthreeaspectsofcultiv
4、atedland:quantitysecurity,qualitysecurityandsociety-economicsecurity.ItalsohasmadesstudyofBozhoucitytoearlywarnofitscultivatedlandresoucessecurityintheyear2015.(1)Forcastingthepressureindexofregionalcultivatedland.Onthebasisofthedataaboutthecultivatedlandareas,foodproductivityandpopulat
5、ionchangesduring2000—2009ofBozhou,thisdissertation,throughrelatedindexforcast,hascalculatedtherealpercapitacultivatedlandareaandtheleastpercapitacultivatedlandareain2015,italsointroducedthepressureindexmodelofcultivatedlandtoprobethepressureofcultivatedlandofBozhoucityin2015.Theresearch
6、indicatesthatthecultivatedlandofBozhouin2015hasnoobviouspressure,foodproductioncannotonlymeetthedemandsofeconomicdevelopmentandgrowingpopulation,嬲wellasalargesurplusforAnhuiProvincetomakecontributionsforthewholecountry.(2)Studyonearlywarningofregionalcultivatedlandresourcessecurity.Firs
7、tly,establishingtheearlywarningsystemtomakeawarningscoreofvariousindeces;secondly,usingthefuzzycomprehensiveevaluationtoconstructthewarningmodel,SOastodeterminethesafetylevelofBozhouin2015.Theresearchindicatesthatthelandresourcessafetyaccountsfor74.17%and25.83%incaseofsmallandm