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1、APracticalGuidetoTechnicalIndicators;(Part1)MovingAveragesByS.AGhafariOverthepastdecades,attemptshavebeenmadebytradersandresearchersaimingtofindareliablemethodtopredictnextactionofthesecurities.Asaresultwehaveavarietyofdifferentfundamentalandtechnicalanalysismethodsandmanytheoriestoda
2、ythatreallywork.ForthefirstpaceIwanttodiscusstechnicalanalysiswhichisverypopularthesedays.Technicalanalysisisacommonmethodtoevaluatingsecuritiesanddeterminingthenextdirectionofthepricethroughusingchartpatternsandmathematicalindicatorsoracombinationofboth.Manybelievethatitisthemostreli
3、ablewaytofindouthowsupplyanddemandisgoingtobechangedandwhatisthelatestdecisionmadebymarketparticipants.Asamatteroffactalargeportionofmarkettradersprefertousetechnicalindicatorstoconfirmsuggestedchartpatternsortradingopportunities.Sometimesindicatorsactliketheyarecompletelywronginpredi
4、ctingorconfirmingthedirectionofthemarket.Isitbecausetheyareabsolutelyuselessormaybeyoureadtheminawrongway?Theansweris,sometimesthemarketenvironmentisnotsuitableforaparticularindicator.Thatmeansyoucan'tuseatrendingindicatorinarangemarketandviceversa.Alsosometimesdifferenttechnicalindic
5、atorssignalsconflictanditisnoteasytopicktherightinterpretationbetweenthepossibilitiesthatcameoutofeachindicator.Thisisbecauseofthenatureofeachindicatorandthiskindofoutcomeoftenmeans"awrongsetup".Youmustmakesurethatnoindicatorcanalwaysshowyoutherighttradingsignal.SoIthinkitisamust,fort
6、raderstounderstandthenatureoftheindicatorsandeffectivelyavoidtheirnoises.However,Iamgoingtointroducethemostcommontechnicalindicatorsandthetipsaroundthem.MovingAveragesSimpleMovingAverage(SMA)AMovingaveragesimplymeasuretheaveragepriceorexchangerateofasecurityoveraspecifictimeframe.Fore
7、xample,5daySimpleMovingAverageisthesumoflast5daysclosing/openingpricedividedbythenumberoftimeperiods(5).Day12345Price6468105DaySMA----6.8ExponentialMovingAverage(EMA)Whilethesimplemovingaverageisalaggingindicator,wemayfindawaytoreducethelag.Todothis,itisbettertouseanotherkindofMovinga
8、verag