Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises-Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten.pdf

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1、WP/13/266FinancialandSovereignDebtCrises:SomeLessonsLearnedandThoseForgottenCarmenM.ReinhartandKennethS.Rogoff?2013InternationalMonetaryFundWP/13/266IMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentFinancialandSovereignDebtCrises:SomeLessonsLearnedandThoseForgotten1PreparedbyCarmenM.ReinhartandKennet

2、hS.RogoffAuthorizedfordistributionbyStijnClaessensDecember2013ThisWorkingPapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheIMF.TheviewsexpressedinthisWorkingPaperarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheIMForIMFpolicy.WorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheaut

3、hor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtofurtherdebate.AbstractEvenafteroneofthemostseveremulti-yearcrisesonrecordintheadvancedeconomies,thereceivedwisdominpolicycirclesclingstothenotionthathigh-incomecountriesarecompletelydifferentfromtheiremergingmarketcounterparts.Thecurrentphaseo

4、ftheofficialpolicyapproachispredicatedontheassumptionthatdebtsustainabilitycanbeachievedthroughamixofausterity,forbearanceandgrowth.Theclaimisthatadvancedcountriesdonotneedtoresorttothestandardtoolkitofemergingmarkets,includingdebtrestructuringsandconversions,higherinflation,capitalco

5、ntrolsandotherformsoffinancialrepression.Aswedocument,thisclaimisatoddswiththehistoricaltrackrecordofmostadvancedeconomies,wheredebtrestructuringorconversions,financialrepression,andatoleranceforhigherinflation,oracombinationofthesewereanintegralpartoftheresolutionofsignificantpastdeb

6、toverhangs.JELClassificationNumbers:E6,E44,F3,F34,G1,H6,N10Keywords:Financialcrises,sovereigndebtcrises,deleveraging,creditcycles,financialrepression,debtrestructuring.Author’sE-MailAddress:Carmen_Reinhart@hks.harvard.edu,krogoff@harvard.edu1ThispaperwaswrittenfortheIMFconferenceon“Fi

7、nancialCrises:Causes,Consequences,andPolicyResponses,”September14,2012.AversionisforthcominginS.Claessens,M.A.Kose,L.Laeven,andF.Valencia(eds.),FinancialCrises:Causes,Consequences,andPolicyResponses,IMF.WearegratefultoNationalScienceFoundationGrantNo.0849224forfinancialsupport.2Conten

8、tsPag