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1、25814-P.R.(081-090)Uncertainty8/8/008:56AMPage81StrategyunderuncertaintyHughG.Courtney,JaneKirkland,andS.PatrickViguerieThetraditionalapproachtostrategyrequiresprecisepredictionsandthusoftenleadsexecutivestounderestimateuncertainty.Thiscanbedownrightdangerous.Afour-levelframeworkcanh
2、elp.ttheheartofthetraditionalapproachtostrategyliestheAassumptionthatexecutives,byapplyingasetofpowerfulanalytictools,canpredictthefutureofanybusinessaccuratelyenoughtochooseaclearstrategicdirectionforit.Theprocessofteninvolvesunderesti-matinguncertaintyinordertolayoutavisionoffuture
3、eventssuffi-cientlyprecisetobecapturedinadiscounted-cash-?ow(DCF)analysis.Whenthefutureistrulyuncertain,thisapproachisatbestmarginallyhelpfulandatworstdownrightdangerous:underestimatinguncertaintycanleadtostrategiesthatneitherdefendacompanyagainstthethreatsnortakeadvantageoftheopport
4、unitiesthathigherlevelsofuncertaintyprovide.Anotherdangerliesattheotherextreme:ifmanagerscan’t?ndastrategythatworksundertraditionalanalysis,theymayabandontheanalyticalrigoroftheirplanningprocessaltogetherandbasetheirdecisionsongutinstinct.HughCourtneyisaconsultantinMcKinsey’sWashingt
5、on,DC,office;JaneKirklandisanalumnusoftheNewYorkoffice;andPatrickViguerieisaprincipalintheAtlantaoffice.ThisarticleisadaptedfromonethatappearedinHarvardBusinessReview,November–December1997.Copyright?1997PresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollege.Reprintedbypermission.Allrightsreserved.81258
6、14-P.R.(081-090)Uncertainty8/8/008:56AMPage8282THECHANGINGLANDSCAPEMakingsystematicallysoundstrategicdecisionsunderuncertaintyrequiresanapproachthatavoidsthisdangerousbinaryview.Rarelydomanagersknowabsolutelynothingofstrategicimportance,eveninthemostuncertainenvironments.Whatfollowsi
7、saframeworkfordeterminingthelevelofuncertaintysurroundingstrategicdecisionsandfortailoringstrategytothatuncertainty.FourlevelsofuncertaintyAvailablestrategicallyrelevantinformationtendstofallintotwocategories.First,itisoftenpossibletoidentifycleartrends,suchasmarketdemographics,thatc
8、anhelpde?nep
