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1、TechnicalAnalysisforLong-termInvestorsLong-terminvestorsoftenshuntechnicalanalysisbecauseitisthoughttobeatoolusedsolelyforshort-termspeculation.Infact,alargepartoftheliteratureoftechnicalanalysisisdevotedtoshort-termtiming,whichconfirmsthisbelief.Manyindiv
2、idualinvestorshaveexperimentedwithvariouschartingtechniquesandhavedroppedthetechnicalapproachafterafew“bad”experiences.Professionallong-terminvestorsareoftencompletelyindoctrinatedinthebeliefthatthemarketis“efficient”andthattechnicalanalysisisofnopractical
3、valuesincetheday-to-dayfluctuationsofstockpricesarerandom.Therecanbelittleargumentthattheday-to-daymovementsofstockpricesarerandom.Andyet,themovementsofindividualstocksandthebroadmarketdemonstrateanuncannyabilitytoanticipatefuturefundamentaldevelopmentsand
4、otherfactorsthatinfluencestockprices.Short-termrandomnessofstockpricesdoesnotseemtodiminishtheabilityofthemarkettomore-or-lessconsistentlyactasalong-termdiscountingmechanism.Therandomnatureofstockpricemovementshasledtothedevelopmentofaprimarilyacademictheo
5、rycalledtheEfficientMarketHypothesis.TheEMHishighlycriticalofprofessionalinvestmentmanagementandisoftenusedtojustifyapassiveindexedapproachtoportfoliomanagement.Mostoftheassumptionsthatmakeupthefoundationsoftheefficientmarkethypothesisseemunrealistictome–e
6、speciallytheideasthatnewinformationisdisseminatedthroughoutthemarketinstantlyandthatallinvestorsinterpretnewinformationaccuratelyandthatstocksarealwayspricedcorrectly.Ihaveobservedinstancesthatarealmostexactlyoppositetothispropositionsofrequentlyastorepres
7、entacommonoccurrence.Andstill,theconclusionsoftheefficientmarkethypothesisseemtobeborneoutbythealmostuniversalinabilityofthemajorityofinstitutionalinvestorsto“beat”themarketasmeasuredbyapopularmarketaveragesuchastheS&P500.Theacademiccommunitysmuglypointsto
8、thelackofperformanceasanalmostdirectproofoftheefficientmarkethypothesis.That“proof”isalmosttotallydamagingtothepracticeoftechnicalanalysisbylong-termfundamentalinvestors.TheinabilityW.ClayAllenCFAPage12/25/01
