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1、TheBehaviorofStock-MarketPricesAuthor(s):EugeneF.FamaReviewedwork(s):Source:TheJournalofBusiness,Vol.38,No.1(Jan.,1965),pp.34-105Publishedby:TheUniversityofChicagoPressStableURL:http://www.jstor.org/stable/2350752.Accessed:01/06/201212:15YouruseoftheJSTOR
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4、lofBusiness.http://www.jstor.orgTHEBEHAVIOROFSTOCK-MARKETPRICES*EUGENEF.FAMAtI.INTRODUCTIONhaviorwilltendtorecurinthefuture.FORmanyyearsthefollowingques-Thus,ifthroughcarefulanalysisofpricetionhasbeenasourceofcontinuingchartsonedevelopsanunderstandingcont
5、roversyinbothacademicandofthese"patterns,"thiscanbeusedtobusinesscircles:Towhatextentcanthepredictthefuturebehaviorofpricesandpasthistoryofacommonstock'spriceinthiswayincreaseexpectedgains.'beusedtomakemeaningfulpredictionsBycontrastthetheoryofrandomconce
6、rningthefuturepriceofthestock?walkssaysthatthefuturepathofthepricelevelofasecurityisnomorepre-Answerstothisquestionhavebeenpro-videdontheonehandbythevariousdictablethanthepathofaseriesofchartisttheoriesandontheotherhandcumulatedrandomnumbers.Instatisti-by
7、thetheoryofrandomwalks.caltermsthetheorysaysthatsuccessiveAlthoughtherearemanydifferentpricechangesareindependent,identical-chartisttheories,theyallmakethesamelydistributedrandomvariables.Mostbasicassumption.Thatis,theyallas-simplythisimpliesthattheseries
8、ofpricesumethatthepastbehaviorofasecuri-changeshasnomemory,thatis,thety'spriceisrichininformationconcern-pastcannotbeusedtopredictthefutureingitsfuturebehavior.Historyrepeatsinanymeaningfulway.itselfinthat"patterns"
