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1、廈門大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文人口老齡化對貿(mào)易收支的影響姓名：李晴申請學(xué)位級別：博士專業(yè)：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)指導(dǎo)教師：莊宗明20090401AbstractWiththeadvancementofworldpopulationaging，moreandmorecountriesbegantofaceaseriesofissuecausedbypopulmionaging，andtheseissuesarerelatedtomanyaspectsofeconomy．Atthemeantime，謝tllthefurtherdevelopmentofeconomicglobalization,international
2、tradedevelopsrapidly,andworldtradepatternsandintemationaltradeformsarechanging．Thedissertationmadeastudyoftheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalanceundersuchabackground，anditismeaningfultothestudiesofworldeconomyandpopulationaging．First，basedonLifeCycleHypothesis，thedissertationestablishedatheor
3、ymodelbyadjustingandsimplifyingtheclassicmodel，andthen,carriedoutasimulationbasedonthetheorymodel，totakeatheoreticaldiscussionontheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalance．Thetheoreticalanalysisshowsthatpopulationagingcouldworsenthetradebalance．Second，basedonthetheoreticalanalysis，thedissertation
4、carriedoutempiricalanalysisfromtwoaspects，worldandChina．Inworld’Saspect，thedissertationanalyzedtheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetotaltradebalanceandthebilateraltradebalancebyusingBinaryChoiceModel．InChina’SaspecLthedissertationanalyzedthetradebalancebetweenChinaanddevelopedcountriesbyusingPanelData
5、Model．Theresultofempiricalanalysisshowsthat，comparedtodevelopingcountries，thetradebalanceofdevelopedcountriesismorelikelytobeinfluencedbypopulationaging．Third，basedonthepreviousanalysis，thedissertationtooksomefactors(thedifferenceinconsumption，demographictransitionandthedifferenceinaging，socialsecur
6、ity,foreigndirectinvestment)whichwereignoredintheprevioustheoreticalmodelandempiricalanalysisintoconsideration．Thediscussionshowsthat，becauseofthedifferenceinthesefactors，influenceofpopulationagingontradebalanceindifferentcountriesiSdifferent，andalsodifferentfromtheoreticalinfluence．Finally,onthebas
7、isofthepreviousresearch，thedissertationcomestotheconclusionthatpopulationagingcouldaffectthetradebalanceincertainextent，buttheinfluenceisconditionalandespeciallydifferentbetweendevelopedcountriesandde
