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1、廈門大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文人口老齡化對貿(mào)易收支的影響姓名:李晴申請學(xué)位級別:博士專業(yè):世界經(jīng)濟(jì)指導(dǎo)教師:莊宗明20090401AbstractWiththeadvancementofworldpopulationaging,moreandmorecountriesbegantofaceaseriesofissuecausedbypopulmionaging,andtheseissuesarerelatedtomanyaspectsofeconomy.Atthemeantime,謝tllthefurtherdevelopmentofeconomicglobalization,international
2、tradedevelopsrapidly,andworldtradepatternsandintemationaltradeformsarechanging.Thedissertationmadeastudyoftheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalanceundersuchabackground,anditismeaningfultothestudiesofworldeconomyandpopulationaging.First,basedonLifeCycleHypothesis,thedissertationestablishedatheor
3、ymodelbyadjustingandsimplifyingtheclassicmodel,andthen,carriedoutasimulationbasedonthetheorymodel,totakeatheoreticaldiscussionontheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetradebalance.Thetheoreticalanalysisshowsthatpopulationagingcouldworsenthetradebalance.Second,basedonthetheoreticalanalysis,thedissertation
4、carriedoutempiricalanalysisfromtwoaspects,worldandChina.Inworld’Saspect,thedissertationanalyzedtheinfluenceofpopulationagingonthetotaltradebalanceandthebilateraltradebalancebyusingBinaryChoiceModel.InChina’SaspecLthedissertationanalyzedthetradebalancebetweenChinaanddevelopedcountriesbyusingPanelData
5、Model.Theresultofempiricalanalysisshowsthat,comparedtodevelopingcountries,thetradebalanceofdevelopedcountriesismorelikelytobeinfluencedbypopulationaging.Third,basedonthepreviousanalysis,thedissertationtooksomefactors(thedifferenceinconsumption,demographictransitionandthedifferenceinaging,socialsecur
6、ity,foreigndirectinvestment)whichwereignoredintheprevioustheoreticalmodelandempiricalanalysisintoconsideration.Thediscussionshowsthat,becauseofthedifferenceinthesefactors,influenceofpopulationagingontradebalanceindifferentcountriesiSdifferent,andalsodifferentfromtheoreticalinfluence.Finally,onthebas
7、isofthepreviousresearch,thedissertationcomestotheconclusionthatpopulationagingcouldaffectthetradebalanceincertainextent,buttheinfluenceisconditionalandespeciallydifferentbetweendevelopedcountriesandde