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1、CoastalEngineering55(2008)849–860ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectCoastalEngineeringjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/coastaleng44YearsHindcastofthesealevelandcirculationintheBalticSeaa,?,W.Cie?likiewiczaaabJ.J?drasik,M.Kowalewski,K.Bradtke,A.JankowskiaInstituteofOceano
2、graphy,UniversityofGdańsk,Al.Marsza?kaPi?sudskiego48,81-378Gdynia,PolandbInstituteofOceanologyofPAS,PowstańcówWarszawy55,81-712Sopot,PolandarticleinfoabstractAvailableonline2June2008ThesubjectoftheinvestigationwasthemultiyearhindcastofthesealevelelevationsandcurrentsovertheBaltic
3、Sea.TheapproachfollowstotheHIPOCASprojectconceptionandcontainedthe3DhydrodynamicKeywords:modelusingboundaryconditionsfromtheatmosphereandcatchmentfor44-yearperiodreferringtotheHIPOCASsecondhalfofthe20thcentury.TheBalticSeaThesealevel?uctuationsandcurrenthindcastwereperformedbythe
4、M3D_UGmodelbasedonthePOM.HindcastTheevaluationsofhindcastaccuracyweredonebycomparisonofthemodelledsimulationsto?eldSealevelCurrentsobservations.TheirresultswerepresentedasstatisticalmeasurescoredonthemeanandintegralsquareValidationofmodelerrors.Themodelresultscomparedtotheobserve
5、ddataagreedwellandcon?rmedusefullnessoftheusedPatternofcirculationmodelforhindcast.Exceptforthehindcastqualityevaluations,bothobservedandmodelledsealevelelevationswereanalyzedbythespectralandprincipalcomponentanalysismethodsforsinglingoutthecomponentsofitsvariability.Theresearchp
6、rovedatleasttwooppositetrends—decreasingatthenortherncoastandincreasinginthesouthernones.Moreover,threetemporalcomponentsoftheirvariabilitywererevealed.Duetovectorialandmodularaverageofcurrents,annualcirculationpatternsintheBalticSeahavebeenobtained.Usingoflongtermsequencesofthec
7、urrent?elds,interannualchangesofaveragedvelocityandtheirincreasingtrendwereevaluated.?2008PublishedbyElsevierB.V.1.Introductionstagesthatmodelgenerated44years'(1958–2001)sealevelandcurrenthindcast.Simulationresultsweresubjectedtovalidation.TheHIPOCASstrategicobjectivewasobtaining
8、40years'hindcastvalidationofmodelledseal
