新常態(tài)下我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警研究

《新常態(tài)下我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警研究》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線(xiàn)閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。

1、分類(lèi)號(hào)：Ｆ０１５學(xué)校代碼：１０６９７密級(jí)：公開(kāi)學(xué)號(hào)：２０１５２００８５馨Ｉ？士字位ｉ２文’ＳＤＭＡＳＴＥＲＩＳＳＥＲＴＡＴＯＮＩ新常態(tài)下我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)漆增長(zhǎng)盾量的監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警研究ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎＭｏｎｉｔｏｒｉｎｇａｎｄＷａｒｎｉｎｇｏｆｔｈｅＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＧ’ｒｏｗｔｈＱｕａｌｉｔｙｏｆＣｈｉｎａｓＲｅｇｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅＮｅｗＮｏｒｍａｌ學(xué)科名稱(chēng)：西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)作者：張蓓指導(dǎo)老師：任保平教授西北大學(xué)學(xué)位評(píng)定委員會(huì)二〇一八年六月瓠ResearchonMonitorin

2、gandWarningoftheEconomicGrowthQualityofChina’sRegionintheNewNormaldissertationAthesissubmittedtoNorthwestUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthedegreeofMasterinWesternEconomicsProfessorByZhangBeiSupervisor:RenBaopingProfessorMarch2018摘要摘要新常態(tài)背景下，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的價(jià)值取向與目標(biāo)不再是古典與新古典時(shí)期的

3、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)量與規(guī)模，在歷史流變與時(shí)代使命的雙重訴求下轉(zhuǎn)向質(zhì)量與發(fā)展。區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量作為全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的基本單元，是新時(shí)代質(zhì)量研究的起點(diǎn)。本文嵌合宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的基本研究框架，在劃分均質(zhì)區(qū)域基礎(chǔ)上重塑區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的研究邏輯，關(guān)注空間與時(shí)間維度上區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡現(xiàn)狀改善與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力提升的動(dòng)態(tài)均衡。這種動(dòng)態(tài)均衡落腳時(shí)點(diǎn)為現(xiàn)在與未來(lái)，匹配監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警研究方法，涉及增長(zhǎng)的各個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)。此時(shí)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的價(jià)值判定也擴(kuò)展至增長(zhǎng)的各個(gè)階段，從初始條件、運(yùn)行過(guò)程、演化結(jié)果、輻射效益四大方面共同構(gòu)筑區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警的綜合指標(biāo)體系。并在貫穿統(tǒng)一的架構(gòu)中分別構(gòu)建長(zhǎng)

4、期、短期交互的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，通過(guò)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量綜合預(yù)警指數(shù)進(jìn)行合成，劃分相應(yīng)警情區(qū)域。長(zhǎng)期視角下關(guān)注趨勢(shì)中蘊(yùn)含的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量綜合與方面改善機(jī)制作用機(jī)制與現(xiàn)存問(wèn)題，短期視角下重在分析年內(nèi)各月度波動(dòng)情況，提升監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的時(shí)效性與指導(dǎo)力。最后通過(guò)對(duì)過(guò)去及現(xiàn)在的警情狀態(tài)進(jìn)行分析，對(duì)未來(lái)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的趨勢(shì)與波動(dòng)分別進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)、短期預(yù)測(cè)，以預(yù)判不同質(zhì)量提升機(jī)制未來(lái)作用力發(fā)揮效果，達(dá)到規(guī)避重大轉(zhuǎn)折惡化警情的目的，為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量宏觀(guān)調(diào)控的轉(zhuǎn)向提供支撐。關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量，監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，預(yù)測(cè)英文摘要ABSTRACTUnd

5、erthebackgroundofChina’sNewNormal,thevalueorientationandgoalofeconomicgrowtharenolongerthequantityandscaleinclassicalandneoclassicalperiods,butturntothequalityanddevelopmentunderthedualdemandsofhistoricalchangeandthetimesmission.Thequalityofregionaleconomicgrowth,asthebasicunitofthe

6、qualityofnationaleconomicgrowth,startsthepointofqualityresearchinthenewera.Combiningthebasicresearchframeworkofmacro-economicgrowthquality,thispapercreatestheresearchlogicofregionaleconomicgrowthqualitybasedondividinghomogeneousregionsandfocusesonthedynamicequilibriumofregionaldevel

7、opmentimbalanceinspatialandtemporaldimensionsandtheenhancementofregionaleconomicgrowthpotentiality.Thisdynamicequilibriumisbasedonthepresentandfuture,andmatchestheresearchmethodsofmonitoringandearlywarning.Atthistime,thevalueofthequalityofregionaleconomicgrowthisalsoextendedtothevar

8、iousstagesofgrowth,