《全球磷肥展望》PPT課件

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1、ChinaPhosphateFertilizersandCompoundsTradeFair-Shandong-October2008GlobalPhosphateOutlook2008-2009全球磷肥展望MichelPrud’hommeIFA–Francemprudhomme@fertilizer.orgNon-for-profitorganizationrepresentingtheglobalfertilizerindustryandrelatedservices.非營利組織，代表全球肥料工業(yè)及相關(guān)服務(wù)530membercompaniesin87countries.有530

2、個(gè)會員單位，來自于87個(gè)國家IFA’smandate:IFA的使命Promotethesustainableandresponsibleproductionoffertilizers.促進(jìn)可持續(xù)的和負(fù)責(zé)任的肥料生產(chǎn)Fosteranopenbusinessandtradeenvironment.培育開放的商業(yè)和貿(mào)易環(huán)境Supportthedevelopmentofasustainableandefficientuseofplantnutrients.支持可持續(xù)的和高效的利用作物養(yǎng)分的開發(fā)InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociation國際肥料工業(yè)協(xié)

3、會1-WorldAgricultureSituation世界農(nóng)業(yè)形勢2-FertilizerandFertilizerPhosphateDemand肥料及肥料磷酸鹽的需求3-PhosphateRockandPhosphoricAcidOutlook磷礦和磷酸市場展望4–ProcessedPhosphatesOutlook精細(xì)磷化工市場展望Content內(nèi)容FertilizerDemandDrivers推動肥料需求的因素Cropsupplyanddemandprojections糧食供求預(yù)測Foodpricesdrivers糧食價(jià)格Increasingpopulation,globa

4、leconomicgrowth,risingmeatconsumptionpercapita人口增長、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、人均肉食消費(fèi)的提高Escalatingcrudeoilprice,expansionofbiofuelproduction石油價(jià)格上漲，生物燃料生產(chǎn)的擴(kuò)張Declininggraininventories谷物庫存的降低Risingfarmproductioncost種植成本的升高Weatherfactors氣候因素Nationaltradepolicies各國貿(mào)易政策的調(diào)整Sources:IFA,derivedfromERS-USDA,July2008WorldCer

5、ealProductionandUtilization全球谷物生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)趨勢Source:FAO,July2008BilliontonnesWorldCerealStocks全球谷物庫存Source:FAO,July2008MilliontonnesWorldFertilizerDemand2005–2012全球肥料需求MilliontonnesnutrientsSource:IFA,2008+2.6%p.a.over2007+2.9%p.a.over2007NP2O5K2OMtnutrients2007p%Over20062008f%Over20072009f%Over2008N

6、99.4+4.6%102.9+3.5%106.0+3.0%P2O540.2+4.5%40.8+1.6%42.1+3.1%K2O29.1+5.9%29.8+2.4%30.5+2.4%Total168.7+4.8%173.5+2.9%178.6+2.9%WorldFertilizerShort-TermConsumption全球肥料短期消費(fèi)預(yù)測Source:IFA,2008WorldPhosphateFertilizerDemand全球磷肥需求MtP2O5+5.0%+3.1%+1.6%+4.5%42.140.840.238.536.6Source:IFA,2008PhosphateNu

7、trientRegionalDemand分地區(qū)磷肥需求2007to2009Source:IFA,20085MtP2O520072009+3%+2%+4%+6%+8%050100150200250200720082009201020112012EastAsiaOthersWestAsiaAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaEuropeandEECAWorldPhosphateRockCapability全球磷礦石產(chǎn)能MtproductSource