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1、On-lineMonitoringandOscillatoryStabilityMarginPredictioninPowerSystemsBasedonSystemIdenti?cationbyHassanGhasemiAthesispresentedtotheUniversityofWaterlooinful?lmentofthethesisrequirementforthedegreeofDoctorofPhilosophyinElectricalandComputerEngineeringWaterloo,Ontario,Canada,2006°cHas
2、sanGhasemi2006IherebydeclarethatIamthesoleauthorofthisthesis.Thisisatruecopyofthethesis,includinganyrequired?nalrevisions,asacceptedbymyexaminers.Iunderstandthatmythesismaybemadeelectronicallyavailabletothepublic.iiAbstractPoorlydampedelectromechanicalmodesdetectioninapowersystemandc
3、orre-spondingstabilitymarginspredictionareveryimportantinpowersystemplanningandoperation,andcanprovidesigni?canthelptopowersystemoperatorswithpreventingstabilityproblems.Stochasticsubspaceidenti?cationisproposedinthisthesisasatechniquetoextractthecriticalmode(s)fromthemeasuredambient
4、noisewithoutrequiringarti?cialdisturbances(e.g.alineoutage),allowingthesecriticalmodestobeusedasanon-lineindex,whichisreferredheretoasSystemIdenti?cationStabilityIndices(SISI)topredicttheclosestoscillatoryinstability.TheSISIisnotonlyindependentofsystemmodelsandtrulyrepresentativeofth
5、eactualsystem,butalsocomputationallye?cient.Inaddition,readilyavailablesignalsinapowersystemandseveralidenti?cationmethodsarecategorized,andmeritsandpitfallsofeachoneareaddressedinthiswork.Thedampingtorqueoflinearizedmodelsofpowersystemsisstudiedinthisthesisasanotherpossibleon-linese
6、curityindex.Thisindexisestimatedbymeansofpropersystemidenti?cationtechniquesappliedtobothpowersystemtransientresponseandambientnoise.ThedampingtorqueindexisshowntoaddresssomeofdrawbacksoftheSISI.Thisthesisalsodemonstratestheconnectionbetweenthesecondorderstatisticalproperties,includi
7、ngcon?denceintervals,oftheestimatedelectromechanicalmodesandthevarianceofmodelparameters.TheseanalysesshowthatMonte-Carlotypeofexperimentsorsimulationscanbeavoided,henceresultinginasigni?cantreductioninthenumberofsamples.Inthesetypesofstudies,themodelsavailableinsimulationpackagesare
8、ex-iiitremel