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1、RethinkingEastAsianSecurityBarryBuzanandGeraldSegalAsinotherregions,internationalsecurityinEastAsiahasbeentrans-formedbytheendoftheColdWar.Yet,debateaboutthedirectionofchange,letalonetherealityofthetransformation,hasbeenmuchslowertodevelopinthisregionthaninEurop
2、e.ThereasonsforthesetardyreactionssuggestthatEastAsians,andaninterestedwiderworld,haveseriouscauseforconcernabouttherisksofconflictinEastAsia.ThedebateaboutEastAsiansecurityisdominatedbytwotheoriesofthefuture.Ontheonehand,thereisthe'backtothefuture'viewes-poused
3、byrealists,whoarguethattheendoftheColdWarhasreleasedindigenousconflictsthatwerepreviouslysuppressed.ItisarguedthatAsiacouldeasilydestabilise,withaclassicalbalanceofpowerpoliticscomingtodominatetheinternationalrelationsoftheregion.Ontheotherhand,themoreliberalvie
4、warguesthatthecomplexinterdependenceofthelatetwentiethcenturyhascurtailedmilitaryrivalrybetweenindustrial-isedstates.TheEastAsianstates,especiallyJapanandthenewlyindustri-alisingcountries(NICs),areensnaredinthisweboftradingandfinancialdependencies.Combinedwithth
5、edeclineofthedivisiveinfluenceoftheColdWar,thisinterdependencecaneradicateseriousconflictinthere-gion.Bothoftheseargumentsarepersuasive,butthefearisthatthepessimistsmaybeclosertothetruth.AssessingthebalancebetweenthemiscomplicatedbytheaversionofAsianstobeinghone
6、stabouttheirsecurityconcerns.DownloadedBy:[GeorgeWashingtonUniversity]At:15:0526August2010Theanalysisthatfollowswillassessthemainargumentsoftheprotago-nistsinordertoidentifythegreatestrisksofconflict.Tryingtopeerintothefutureisanotoriouslyhazardousbusinessandtho
7、seattemptingitusuallydrawonbothhistoryandtheoryforguidance.Thatwillalsobeourstrategy.IneachofthefollowingsectionswewilltakeoneperspectiveanduseitasalensthroughwhichtoexaminesecurityrelationsinEastAsia.Anylenstendstohighlightsomefeaturesoftheobjectunderscrutinyan
8、dsuppressothers.Byaddingseveralsuchexaminationsto-gether,wehopetoassembleareasonablyclearpictureofthesecurityBarryBuzanisProfessorofInternationalStudiesattheUniversit
