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1、26THECHINESEECONOMYTheChineseEconomy,vol.39,no.2,March–April2006,pp.26–39.?2006M.E.Sharpe,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ISSN1097–1475/2006$9.50+0.00.GAIYANZHANGANDHUNG-GAYFUNGOntheImbalanceBetweentheRealEstateMarketandtheStockMarketsinChinaAbstract:Thisarticleexplorestheim
2、balancebetweenChina’srealestatemarket,whichisbooming,andthestockmarket,whichhasplungedoverfouryears.Ourempiricalanalysisshowsthatthetwomarketsaresystemati-callynegativelyrelatedduetofundflows.Theplummetingstockindexesarepartlycausedbythesurgeinthepropertymarket.Int
3、hemeantime,thestockcompositeindexisfoundtobesignificantinexplaininghousing-pricemove-ments,whicharealsoaffectedbytheinflationrateandhotmoneyinflows.Policymeasuresredirectingtheinfluxoffundsfromthehousingmarkettothestockmarketswillhelpstructuraladjustmentinstockmark
4、ets,whichisoneofthenation’skeytasks.EconomicgrowthinChinahasbeenspectacularinrecentyears.Thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)hasgrownbyover9.3percentayearonaveragefrom1990tothepresent.Atthesametime,manyissuesandchallengesareconfrontingChina.Thereareenormousimbalances:betwe
5、eninvestmentandconsumption;betweenmanufacturingandagriculture;andinaparticularlystrikingway,betweenthestockmarket,whichisplunging,andthereales-tatemarket,whichisbooming.Inthethreeyearsfrom2001to2004,housingpricesrocketedinChinaby68percent(WoodsandSmith2005).Theirra
6、tionalexuberancesignifiestosomeexpertsthatthisisabubblethatsoonerorlaterwillburst.Ridinginanoppositedirection,thestockmarketsinChinahaveslidallthewayformorethanfouryearsandlostmorethan50percentofvalueinthestockindexes.GaiyanZhangandHung-GayFungareprofessorsattheCol
7、legeofBusinessAd-ministrationandCenterforInternationalStudies,UniversityofMissouri-St.Louis.26MARCH–APRIL200627Surprisingly,China’stwostockexchanges(theShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges)wereAsia’sworst-performingmarketsdespitea9.5percentGDPgrowthin2004(Silverman200
8、5).Nodoubt,theimbalanceswillholdChinabackfrommorehealthyfinancialandeconomicdevelopment.Theelusiveperformanceofthestockmarketsmayleadtolargechang
