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1、Thisarticlewasdownloadedby:[ShanDongUniversity]On:07May2013,At:06:40Publisher:Taylor&FrancisInformaLtdRegisteredinEnglandandWalesRegisteredNumber:1072954Registeredoffice:MortimerHouse,37-41MortimerStreet,LondonW1T3JH,UKJournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAsso
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