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1、OPTIMALCAPITALSTRUCTUREFORBUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFERPOWERPROJECTSATHESISSUBMITTEDTOTHEGRADUATESCHOOLOFNATURALANDAPPLIEDSCIENCESOFTHEMIDDLEEASTTECHNICALUNIVERSITYBYERDEMARICIINPARTIALFULFILLMENTOFTHEREQUIREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOFMASTEROFSCIENCEINTHEDEPARTMENTOFCIVILENGINEERINGJULY20031ApprovaloftheGraduateSc
2、hoolofNaturalandAppliedSciencesProf.Dr.Canan?zgenDirectorIcertifythatthisthesissatisfiesalltherequirementsasathesisforthedegreeofMasterofScienceProf.Dr.MustafaTokyayHeadofDepartmentThisistocertifythatIhavereadthisthesisandthatinouropinionitisfullyadequate,inscopeandquality,asathesisforthedegreeofMas
3、terofScience.Asst.Prof.Dr.MetinAr?kanSupervisorExaminingCommitteeMembersAsst.Prof.Dr.MetinARIKANAsst.Prof.Dr.?remD?KMENInst.Dr.EnginERANTNadiBAKIR(MSc.inCE)TuncayALTUNSU(MSc.inCE)2ABSTRACTOPTIMALCAPITALSTRUCTUREFORBUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFERPOWERPROJECTSARICI,ErdemM.S.DepartmentofCivilEngineeringSupervis
4、or:Asst.Prof.Dr.MetinARIKANJuly2003,119pagesObservingthedeficienciesoftraditionalmethodsinmeetingthedemandsoftoday’sinfrastructuredevelopmenthasbeenmotivatingcountriestowardsprivatizationofthesesectors.However,duetothedifferencesinthesesectorsascomparedtootherbusinesses,privatizationcannotbeperforme
5、dwithoutstrictregulations.Today,concessionagreementslikeBOTmodelsseemthebestwayforsolvingtheproblems.Financingofconcessionagreementsplaysakeyrole.InTurkey,mostBOTprojectsarefinancedbycapitalstructurethathasamaximumdebtratio,whichisallowedbythelaw.iiiTheobjectiveofthisstudyistoexaminewhetherthemaximu
6、mamountofdebtratioistheoptimumamountofdebtratio.Optimizationiscarriedoutbyanalyzingthetradeoffbetweenbenefitsoftaxshieldandthelossduetofinancialfailureasaresultofchangeinleverage,assumingotherthingsarethesame.AtheoreticalframeworkisdevelopedfortheanalysisbyselectingAdjustedPresentValueMethodasafinan
7、cialtool.EnergygenerationsectorinTurkeyisanalyzed,stockmarketdatainTurkeyisusedfortheanalysis,andabankruptcypredictionmodelisproposedforBOTprojectsinTurkey.Finally,byusingthetheoreticalframework,anact
