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1、1JANUARY2012financialservicespracticeWhyUSbanksneedanewbusinessmodelInvestorswantradicalplanstoboostROEabovethecostofcapital.ToosDaruvala,HasanMalik,andFritzNauck2Thisautumn,manyUSbanksreportedarespectableimprovementinearningsforthethirdquarter:morethan80perc
2、entofthelargestbeatthemarket’sconsensusforecasts,andasimilarproportionshowedyear-on-yearincreases.Thesecondquarterwasequallyimpressive.Sowhyhavethestocksoflargebanksdeclinedbymorethan20percentsincethebeginningofthethirdquarter—nearlythreetimesmorethanthebroad
3、erstockmarket—tothepointwherefouroutoffivenowtradebelowbookvalue?ManycommentatorsblameEurope’ssovereign-debtcrisisandfearsofadouble-diprecession.Butthreeadditionalfactorsalsoweighheavilyoninvestors:thenewbankcapitalrequirementsintroducedundertheBaselIIIintern
4、ational-bankingregulations,theimpactofnewUSbankingregulationsrespondingtothefinancialcrisis,theDodd–FrankAct,andtheunwindingofconsumerdebt.Allthreeunderminebanking’straditionalbusinessmodel.Bybusinessmodel,wemeanhowbanksactuallyoperate—howworkisdone,thedegree
5、ofautomation,thepricinganddesignofproducts,andunderlyingcompensationsystems.Inthemarket’sview,thethreatsaresostrongthatitwon’tbeenoughtotrimthesails,refocusinvestment,orcutcostsabithereandthere.Ourestimatesshowthatifbanksmaintaintheirexistingbusinessmodels,th
6、eiraveragereturnonequity(ROE)wouldfallto7percentby2015,fromitscurrentlevelof11percent,againstacostofequityprojectedtobemorethan9percent.Investorswanttoseethemanagementteamsofbanksproposecredible,far-reachingplanstoclosethisgap.Themessagethatinvestorsarenowsen
7、ding—sharesofbankswillbevaluedatlevelsimplyingthattheywillnotearntheircostofequity—hasprofoundimplicationsforaUSeconomydependentonahealthybankingsystemtosupportrecoveryandfuelgrowth.Ofthethreethreats,themostsignificantcomesfromtheBaselIIIrequirements,proposed
8、bytheBaselCommitteeonBankingSupervision.Withoutmitigatingactions,theycouldreducetheROEofsomebanksbyasmuchasfivepercentagepoints.Whilethedetailsarestillbeingdetermined,weestimatethattheUSb
