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1、重慶交通大學學生實驗報告實驗課程名稱《經(jīng)濟預測與決策》開課實驗室B01機房學院2014級物流管理專業(yè)四班學生姓名陳立新學號開課時間2015至2016學年第二學期總成績教師簽名實驗元線性回歸預測一、實驗目的通過實驗掌握一元線性回歸預測的數(shù)學模型、參數(shù)估計方法、誤渥分析和檢驗，掌握一元線性回歸的點預測和區(qū)間預測。二、實驗內(nèi)容已知某市貨物運輸量Y（萬噸），GDP（億元，1980年不變價）1985年?1998年的樣本觀測值見下表：年份YGDP198518249161.69198618525171.07198718400184.07198816693194.75198915543197.8619901
2、5929208.55199118308221.06199217522246.92199321640276.8199423783316.38199524040363.52199624133415.51199725090465.78199824505509.101.用Excel直接計算一元線性冋歸模型的參數(shù)，要求寫出計算過程。2.計算可決系數(shù)，并根據(jù)可決系數(shù)分析模型的優(yōu)劣。3.計算F統(tǒng)計量，根據(jù)顯著性水平a=0.05作F檢驗。1.假如2000年某市以1980為不變價國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值為620億元，求2000年貨物運輸量預測值及預測區(qū)間。三、實驗步驟YX(GDP)xi'2y廠2xi*yi1/a18249
3、161.6926143.66333026001295068126.9541512596.2718525171.0729264.94343175625316907226.9541512596.2718400184.0733881.76338560000338688826.9541512596.2716693194.7537927.56278656249325096226.9541512596.2715543197.8639148.58241584849307533826.9541512596.2715929208.5543493.1253733041332199326.9541512596.2
4、718308221.0648867.52335182864404716626.9541512596.2717522246.9260969.49307020484432653226.9541512596.2721640276.876618.24468289600598995226.9541512596.2723783316.38100096.3565631089752446626.9541512596.2724040363.52132146.8577921600873902126.9541512596.2724133415.51172648.65824016891002750326.95415
5、12596.2725090465.782169516295081001168642026.9541512596.2724505509.1259182.86004950251247549626.9541512596.273E+053933.0612773405.855E+0983971489377.3581176347.720169280.9339123&64182275875997963?4yi(yi-yi〉2(yi'Y'廠2r^2(yi-y,)16954.481675777103303720.7810023684754.517207.3117363028769059o"2270132717
6、557.727094436816567.929270603127844.917845.5913284545396261.501207959717929.4156949695013828.91710.8652139591118217.5552374763806472.1F1797396618554.7560885.42604420.942.79505346172619251.782992152840499.477004340.320057.17250533912409.435216510221124.027070180912879.981306409422394.642707218495537
7、0.11498795923795.98113580131581191571669425150.973717.18248242822422045926318.62328922637823126188046132823603.5E+07125263669160388387四、實驗結(jié)果可決系數(shù)=0.781002yi二12596.27+26.95415xi/二12596.27『二26.95F二42.79505F(0.
