資源描述：
《Fear of Floating or Fear of Flying：Exchange Rate Policy in the New Mille》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、EduardoLevyYeyatiTheWorldBank&UniversidadTorcuatoDiTellaDecember,2006FearofFloatingorFearofFlying:ExchangeRatePolicyintheNewMillenium1StoryboardThebasics:Thedebatepost-BrettonWoodsThetradeoff:ExchangerateregimesandtherealeconomyTheevidence:Regimesinthe2000sTheFIT(float+inflationtargeting)paradi
2、gm:naturalevolutionorfad?Fearofflying:buildingacaseforaproactiveexchangeratepolicyThebasicsTherealview(‘70s)Trade(andwelfare)gainsvisàvisusersofthepegcurrencyvs.lossoftheexchangerateasashockabsorberinthepresenceofnominalrigidities.Propeg?Openness,propensitytotrade,tradeconcentrationProfloat?Inc
3、idenceofrealshocksThebasicsThepoliticalview(‘80s)Bands,“tablitas”&othersoftspecies:Exchangerateanchorsasa“policycrutch”tocompensateforthelackofmonetarycredibilityorpoliticalpowerPropeg?highinflation,weakgovernmentsThebasicsThefinancialview(‘90s)Thetrilemma:astheworldintegrates,countrieshavetoch
4、oosebetweenmonetaryautonomy&astableERThebipolarview:Exchangeratepolicyinemergingeconomiesbecomemorevulnerabletothelimitsimposedbythetrilemma:hardpegorfloatTheunipolarview:Balancesheeteffectsduetocurrencymismatcheslimitthescopeforexpansionarydevaluations?HardpegsThetradeoffOversimplifying:Fixvs.
5、flex?Enhancedmonetary&fiscaldiscipline(lowerinflation)atthecostofgreatersensitivitytorealshocks&outputvolatility……exceptunderFD(contractionarydevaluations)Isthistheoreticaltradeoffvalidatedbytheevidence?YesThetradeoffPreliminaryevaluation:Pegscontributetolowerinflationexpectations……atthecostofg
6、reateroutputvolatility…Regimes&outputvolatilitySource:Edwards-LY(2005)ThetradeoffPreliminaryevaluation:Pegscontributetolowerinflationexpectations……atthecostofgreateroutputvolatility……andslowergrowthRegimes&growthSource:LYS(2003)ThetradeoffPreliminaryevaluation:Pegscontributetolowerinflationexpe
7、ctations……atthecostofgreateroutputvolatility……andlowergrowthBalancesheeteffectsSubduedinflationfears?Volatilityconcernsdominate?FloatUnderFD?ThresholdfloatsThebipolarviewafterArgentinaArgentina:Fiscal(in)disciplineSource:DelaTorre
