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1、實(shí)用文檔摘要本文選取1951-2010年濟(jì)南市54823地面觀測(cè)站的平均氣溫(月平均氣溫和年平均氣溫)、年平均最高和最低氣溫、年極端最高和最低氣溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)資料,采用線性趨勢(shì)、距平、滑動(dòng)平均等統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,對(duì)近60年來(lái)濟(jì)南市的平均氣溫、最高和最低氣溫、極端氣溫的變化特征進(jìn)行分析,進(jìn)而分析其影響因素及年代際變化特征。結(jié)果顯示:近60年來(lái)濟(jì)南市的平均氣溫、最高和最低氣溫均呈波動(dòng)式緩慢上升趨勢(shì),且升溫態(tài)勢(shì)明顯,尤以極端最低氣溫增幅最大。從季節(jié)變化來(lái)看,四季的氣溫變化也呈現(xiàn)出波動(dòng)式上升態(tài)勢(shì),尤其冬季氣溫增長(zhǎng)幅度最大。由于濟(jì)南市的城市
2、化進(jìn)程不斷加快,城市人口不斷增加,導(dǎo)致城市熱島效應(yīng)加劇,因此濟(jì)南市的氣溫也在不斷升高。通過(guò)研究,揭示了濟(jì)南市的氣候變化規(guī)律,為了解濟(jì)南地區(qū)的長(zhǎng)期氣候變化趨勢(shì)及其是否與全球氣候變暖的背景相一致提供理論依據(jù),同時(shí)有助于全面了解濟(jì)南的氣溫變化特征。對(duì)氣候影響因素進(jìn)行分析,可以有效地預(yù)測(cè)氣候?yàn)?zāi)害,對(duì)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)有重要作用。關(guān)鍵詞:平均氣溫;最高氣溫;最低氣溫;極端氣溫;變化特征大全實(shí)用文檔ABSTRACTThispaperselectsthedataofthe54823ground-basedobservatoriesinJina
3、nfrom1951to2010,whichcontainstheaveragetemperature(theaveragemonthlytemperatureandaverageannualtemperature),theaveragemaximumandminimumtemperatures,extrememaximumandminimumtemperaturedata,usinglineartrends,anomalies,movingaverageetalstatisticalanalysistoanalyzet
4、emperatureschangecharacteristicsoftheaveragetemperature,maximumandminimumtemperatures,extremetemperatureofthepast60yearsinJinan,andthenanalyzingtheinfluencingfactorsandinterdecadalvariationsoftemperatureschangecharacteristics.Theresultsshowedthattheaveragetemper
5、ature,maximumandminimumtemperatureofJinaninthepast60yearsshowedafluctuatedslowlyrisingtrend,andthewarmingtrendisobvious,especiallytheextrememinimumtemperature.Seasonalvariation,thetemperaturechangesoftheseasonsshowedafluctuatedupwardtrend,especiallythewintertemp
6、eratureslargestincreased.TheprocessofurbanizationofJinanCityaccelerateandtheurbanpopulationcontinuestoincrease,resultinginurbanheatislandeffectintensifies,sothetemperatureinJinanCityisalsorising.Itrevealsthelong-termtrendsclimatechangeinJinanCitythroughresearchi
7、ngandprovidesatheoreticalbasiswhichconsistswiththebackgroundofglobalwarming,whilecontributingtoacomprehensiveunderstandingofthetemperaturevariationofJinan.Analyzingtheimpactontheclimatefactors,itcaneffectivelypredictclimatedisastersandhaveanimportantroleindisast
8、erpreventionandmitigation.Keywords:averagetemperature;maximumtemperature;minimumtemperature;extremetemperatures;changesincharacteristics大全實(shí)用文檔目錄摘要IABSTRACTII1緒論11.1研究