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《基于改進(jìn)混合抽樣與最小切負(fù)荷計(jì)算的電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估方法.pdf》由會(huì)員上傳分享,免費(fèi)在線閱讀,更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫(kù)。
1、第44卷第13期電力系統(tǒng)保護(hù)與控制V01.44NO.132016年7月1日PowerSystemProtectionandControlJu1.1,2016D0I:10.7667/PSPC151355基于改進(jìn)混合抽樣與最小切負(fù)荷計(jì)算的電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估方法孫騰飛,程浩忠,張立波,周勤勇。,賀海磊,曾平良(1.電力傳輸與功率變換控制教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(上海交通大學(xué)),上海200240;2.中國(guó)電力科學(xué)研究院,北京100192)摘要:評(píng)估組合系統(tǒng)可靠性時(shí),蒙特卡羅模擬法不受系統(tǒng)規(guī)模及非線性的影響,且結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確的特性使其在大型電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估中具有優(yōu)越性。但為了獲得精度較高的可靠性指標(biāo),其往往需要
2、較長(zhǎng)計(jì)算時(shí)間。針對(duì)這一問題,采用重要抽樣法與離散拉丁超立方抽樣相結(jié)合的方法,從減小樣本方差與增加樣本均勻性兩方面提高蒙特卡羅模擬的收斂性。對(duì)于大規(guī)模發(fā)輸電系統(tǒng),運(yùn)用靈敏度分析與線性規(guī)劃相結(jié)合的方法進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)過負(fù)荷校正,既能保證求解最優(yōu)性又可以提高求解速度。將該算法應(yīng)用于IEEERTS79系統(tǒng)、IEEERTS96系統(tǒng)和某電網(wǎng)500kV及以上電壓等級(jí)電力系統(tǒng)計(jì)算可靠性指標(biāo),驗(yàn)證了該算法的可行性。關(guān)鍵詞:改進(jìn)離散拉丁超立方抽樣;最小切負(fù)荷計(jì)算;電力系統(tǒng);可靠性評(píng)估;蒙特卡羅模擬;靈敏度分析Reliabilityevaluationbasedonmodifiedmixedsamplingandmin
3、imumload—cuttingmethodSUNTengfei,CHENGHaozhong,ZHANGLibo,ZHOUQinyong2,HEHailei。,ZENGPingliang(1.KeyLaboratoryofControlofPowerTransmissionandConversion,MinistryofEducation(ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity),Shanghai200240,China;2.ChinaElectricPowerResearchInstitute,Beijing100192,China)Abstract:Asitssampli
4、ngfrequencyisindependentofthescaleofthesystemandnon—linearperformance,Monte—Carlosimulationiswidelyappliedtoreliabilityevaluationofacomplexlargetransmissionsystembecauseofitsaccurateresult.However,ittakesarelativelylongperiodoftimetoobtainahigheraccuratereliabilityindex.Inordertosolvethisproblem,t
5、hecombinationofimportancesamplingmethodanddiscreteLatinhypercubesamplingmethodisabletoreducethevarianceofthesamplespaceanduniformlysampleitsimultaneously,whichimprovestheconvergenceofMonte—Carlosimulation.Thispaperpointsoutthat,thecombinationofsensitivityanalysisandlinearprogrammingintheprocessofo
6、verloadcorrectionisabletoguaranteethesolutionoptimali夠aswellasimprovethesolvingspeed.Finally,thealgorithmispresentedforIEEERTS79,IEEERTS96andacertainsystemtoobtainthereliabili夠index,theresultprovesitspracticability.ThisworkissupposedbyN~ionalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(No.51337005、andFundament
7、alandProspectiveScienceandTechnologyProjectofStateGridCorporationofChina(No.XT71—14—002).Keywords:modifiedLatinhypercubesampling;minimumload—curingmethod;powersystem;reliabilityevaluation;Monte—Carlosimulation;se