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1、第36卷第3期人民黃河Vo1.36.No.32014年3月YELLOWRIVERMar.。2014【水資源·水環(huán)境】基于PDSI的甘肅省干旱時(shí)空變化特征分析張振偉,韓曦(1.華北水利水電大學(xué)水利學(xué)院,河南鄭州450011;2.北京北科博研科技有限公司,北京100053)摘要:針對(duì)甘肅省旱災(zāi)頻繁、危害大的現(xiàn)狀,開展了干旱時(shí)空變化特征分析。選取甘肅省境內(nèi)的30個(gè)氣象臺(tái)站1951—2010年的月降水量、月平均風(fēng)速、日最高溫度、日最低溫度、日照時(shí)數(shù)、日平均水汽壓、可能日照時(shí)數(shù)等資料,基于帕默爾干旱指數(shù)(PDSI),采用Ma
2、nn—Kend~l非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)法對(duì)干旱時(shí)空變化特征進(jìn)行研究。結(jié)果表明:全省旱情呈現(xiàn)微弱緩解的趨勢(shì);20世紀(jì)50年代、70年代、9O年代及21世紀(jì)前10a的中后期干旱狀況明顯加重,20世紀(jì)60年代、8O年代干旱狀況有所緩解。對(duì)中等干旱、嚴(yán)重干旱和極端干旱的可能發(fā)生頻次和空間分布進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)全省旱情地域差別較大,總體呈現(xiàn)“兩頭重、中間輕”的特點(diǎn)。關(guān)鍵詞:干旱;時(shí)空變化;PDSI;Mann—Kendall非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)法;甘肅省中圖分類號(hào):P3386文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:Adoi:10.3969/j.issn.10O0—1379.20
3、14.03.017TemporalandSpatialVariationFeatureAnalysisofDroughtinGansuProvinceBasedonPDSlMethodZHANGZhen-wei,HANXi(1.SchoolofWaterConservancy,NorthChinaUniversityofWaterConservancyandHydroelectricPower,Zhengzhou450011,China;2.BeijingBeikeInstituteofScienceandTech
4、nologyCo.Ltd,Beijing100053,China)Abstract:AimedatthePresentsituationoffrequentdroughtandhugedamageinGansuProvince,temporalandspatialvariationfeaturesofdroughtwereanalyzedinthepaper.Onthebasisofthemonthlyprecipitation,monthlyaveragewindspeed,dailymaximumtempera
5、ture,dailyminimumtemperature,sunshinehours,dailyaveragewatervaporpressureandprobablysunshinehoursofeachmonthin50meteorologicalstationsinGansuProvinceduringtheperiodof1951tO2010andbasedonPalmerDroughtSeverityIndex(PDSI)method,temporalandspatialvariationcharacte
6、ris—ticsofthedroughtwereanalyzedbyusingMann—Kendallnonparametrictestanalysis.TheresultsshowthatthedroughttrendisweaklyrelievedinGansuProvinceinrecentyears;thedroughtsituationsweresignificantlyworsenedin1950s,1970s,1990sand2000s,whilethedroughtsituationswererel
7、ievedin1960sand1980s.Thefrequencyandspatialdistributionofmediumdrought,seriousdroughtandextremedroughtwereanalyzed,whichshowsthattheregionaldroughtismoredifferentinthewholeprovincewiththecharacteristicsof“thetwoendsareheavyandthemiddleislight”.Keywords:drought
8、;spatialandtemporalvariation;PDSI;Mann—Kendallnon—parametrictestanalysis;GansuProvince近年來,氣候變暖導(dǎo)致干旱、洪澇等極端水文事件頻繁出現(xiàn)和不斷加劇,給生態(tài)環(huán)境和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了巨大的損失。在1研究資料各類自然災(zāi)害造成的總損失中,干旱災(zāi)害發(fā)生頻率最高、范圍甘肅省處于我國氣候自