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1、February26,202010:00PMGMTCarbonSteelGreenSteelTheracetofossil-freesteelmakingDecarbonizationfast-tracked,industryreturnsunderthreat.RisingESGawarenessandevolvingregulationsareforcingtheEUsteelindustrytoundergoitsbiggesttransformationindecades;thesechangescoul
2、deventuallyspreadtootherregions,inourview.MillsusingBF/BOFemit~1.8tofCO2/tofcrudesteelonaverageinEurope(~2t/tglobally),contributing~5%ofEU28emissionsand7-9%ofworldCO2output.The"EUGreenDeal"hasacceleratedtimetables,settingaCO2reductiontargetofatleast50%by2030(
3、vs1990)onthepathtoclimateneutralityby2050.Attainingcarbon-freesteelmakingwillhavefar-reachingimplicationsforcapex/opex,remediationliabilities,andindustryreturns.RequiringUS$112bnofinvestment.Whilevarioustechnologiesneedtocoexisttoreducecarbonemissionsintheint
4、erim,wethinkthathydrogenironreductionisthemostviablepathtofossil-freesteelmakinglongterm.Itsadoptionwouldrequireanoverhaulof~58%ofEUsteelassets,replacingBF/BOFwithEAFs.Onouranalysisthiscouldcosttheindustry~US$62bn(~US$530/t)indirectinvestmentsand~US$50bnforin
5、frastructuretoproduce,transport,andstore'clean'hydrogenandspongeiron.Thisimpliesaspendof>2xthemarketcapofEuropesteelequitiesunderourcoverage,inadditiontoa35-100%increaseinoperatingcosts.Electricityusageinsteelmakingwouldriseby6-7x,thusliftingEUelectricitycons
6、umptionby~11%(vs2018)while8%moreHydrogenwouldberequiredvscurrentglobalproductionrun-rates.Inshort,anoverhaulofsupplychainsofelectricity,hydrogen,ironore,andmetallurgicalcoalwouldberequired.Synchronizedpolicysupportneeded,withriskofslippage.Therapidlyapproachi
7、ngEUETSPhase4willreduceCO2allowancesasof2021.Someproducershavesufficient'inventory'tomitigateshort-termrisks;butweestimatethat~10%ofindustryEBITDAinEuropewillbeerodedby2030andanother50%ofprofitsinanallowance-freeworld.Thescaleofchangeneededtoattaincarbon-free
8、statusrequiresEUpolicysupportintheformoftaxincentives,supplyof'green'capital,implementationofCO2bordertaxesandinvestmentsinrenewableenergyinfrastructure.The'ClimateLaw'cominginMarch2020co
