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1、EquityResearchGlobalGlobalEquityStrategyTheoutlookforequitiesInvestmentStrategy
2、StrategyNewEPSgrowthforecasts:OurUSstrategisthastakenUSEPSgrowthdownto-25%in2020and+20%in2021.Ourmodelsagree,andforEuropewetakeitdownto-32%in2020and+25%in2021.Economicsforecasts:Oureconomistshavetakenthei
3、reuroareaGDPforecastdownto-4%and-0.9%fortheUSfor2020,butimportantlyforecastthatthelevelofpre-virusGDPwillbehitbythemiddleof2021.Webelievethat,asoccurredinChina,globalPMIswillfalltoaround30,whichwouldbeconsistentwithatroughof-c.2%globalGDPgrowth.Markets:Thekeyissueisthemultipleonthene
4、wdepressedearnings:anormalbearmarketseesa35%de-ratingcomparedwith30%sofar,butwethinkconsensusearningsarec30%toohigh.WebelievecentralbankswillpermanentlydepressrealbondyieldsrelativetoGDPgrowth,andthereforethattheequityriskpremiummodelistheappropriatemodeltouse,ratherthanabsoluteP/Emu
5、ltiples.TheriseincreditspreadshaspushedupourmodelofthewarrantedERPfrom4.6%to8.2%againstanactualof8.6%.IfweassumethatISMendstheyearat50andspreadsfallmarginally,thenS&P500fairvalueis2,700.Thenon-USShillerP/Eat10.1xisbacktolevelsfromwhichithasbouncedoverthepast40years.Whydowethinkmarket
6、scanbe15%higherbyyear-end?Ontheshutdown:Weassumeasix-toeight-weekfulllockdowninEuropeandtheUS,beforethemajorityofworkersreturn,onthebasisthatintwotothreemonths’timetreatments,testingandventilatorswillbefarmoreabletoaccommodateasecondspike(which,withsocialdistancing,shouldbewellbelowt
7、hefirstspikeininfection).Moreover,c.85%ofpeoplemostatriskarenoteconomicallyactive,andwheretestingishighest,themortalityrateis1%orlower.KoreaandChinaprovideatemplateforproductionresumingwithoutalargeriseininfections.Overall,thismeansthatthewelfarecostofnotreturningtoworkintwotothreemo
8、nthscouldbeconsideredhigherbypolicymakersthanthewelfarecostofalockdown.Onapermanentlosstogrowth:Centralbanksandgovernmentsarenownationalisingcreditriskand,insomeinstances,wages.Fiscalstimulusisstarting,andisvastwhereannounced(5%ofGDPislikelyinmanyregions).Itissettobesteppedupandfinan
9、cedbyopen-en
