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2、Gold27June2019COMMODITIESGold–pinningitshopesontheFedInGold–IgetbywithalittlehelpfromtheFed(dated13KEYMESSAGESFebruary2019)wehighlightedhowgold’sprospectswereimprovedwiththeFedadoptingadovishstance,endingrateTradetensionsbetweentheUSandChinafailedtohikesandlimitingthe
3、reductionofitsbalancesheet.TheFedgenerateastrongrallyingoldinMay,unlikelastonceagainlentitshelpinghandinJune,whenithintedthatitDecember.Safehavendemandturnedtobondsandmayconsidercuttingitspolicyrate,dependingoneconomictheUSdollaratleastuntilsuchtimethattradeconditions.Inoth
4、erdriversofgold’sprice,thisyear'sebbtensionsspread,albeitbriefly,toMexicoinearlyJune.andflowoftradetensionsonlybenefittedgoldwhentheseInJune,golddrewstrengthfromexpectationsthatthetensionswereaccompaniedbyanequitymarketsell-off,likeFedwillconsidercuttingrates.Asbondyieldsan
5、dthewhentheUSthreatenedtariffsonMexicangoodswhilestillUSdollarweakenedfollowingtheJuneFOMCinthemiddleofatradedisputewithChina.meeting,goldmovedhigher,exceedingUSD1,400/oz.ChangesintheamountofgoldheldbyphysicallybackedETFssuggestthatinvestordemandforgolddidnotpickupYet,inour
6、view,itisdebatablewhethertheFedwillsignificantlywhentradetensionsheightenedinMay.Inlistedpursueaconventionaleasingcyclethatcouldpropelgoldfutures,interestfrommoneymanagersalsoprovedgoldevenhigherin2020.HowmuchtheFedactuallylacking.However,followingthedovishtoneintheJuneease
7、swilldependonhowUS-ChinatraderelationsFOMCstatement,investorssentimentdistinctlychanged.andeconomicdataevolve.Therewasajumpinbuyinginterest,potentiallyaidedbytheWithweaknessinrealyieldsexpectedtobecomemorevariousknowneconomicunknownsinthemarketandacutebytheturnoftheyearwhen
8、y/yUSinflationheatedgeopoliticalrhetoricbetweentheUSandIran.risesandtheFedlikelytohavemadeatleasttworateWiththeFedsignallingitsreadinesstoconsiderratecuts,cutsbythen,weseeawindowofopportunityforgoldnominalyieldsmovedlower.Moreimportantly,evenastorallybeforeinflationsubsides
9、inH22020.inflationexpectationsfell,realrates,ortheopportunitycostofholdinggold,als
