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1、EconomicResearchService
2、SituationandOutlookReportLDP-M-310
3、April15,2020NextreleaseisMay18,2020Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlookBeefandPorkDisappearanceExpectedToDecreaseBetween2019and2020;PoultryLikelyToIncreaseRedmeatandpoultrydisappearanceiscalculatedasthevolumeofmeatandpoultryproductiont
4、hatremainsfordomesticuseaftersubtractingnettradeandchangesincoldstoragevolumes.DividingthisresidualbytheU.S.populationyieldsthepercapitaquantityforuseinthedomesticmarket.Althoughpercapitadisappearancefactorsinbothimportsandexports,itislargelyasupplystatistic.Itdoesnottakeaccountofwasteornon
5、foodusesofmeatproducts.Itimpartsnoinformationaboutprices,tastesandpreferences,andotherdemandfactorsthatultimatelydeterminehowmuchredmeatandpoultryindividualconsumerswillchoosetobuyandconsume.Thefigurebelowshowsexpectedretailweightpercapitadisappearanceforbeef,pork,broilers,andturkeyfor2020,
6、anddisappearancefor2019.Thesearethelargest-volumemeatsproducedintheUnitedStates.Beefdisappearanceislikelytodeclinethisyearbyabout1percent.Porkisalsoforecasttodecrease,albeitjustslightly:about0.3percent.Broilerdisappearanceisexpectedtoincrease3percentthisyearcomparedto2019.Turkeydisappearanc
7、eisalsoexpectedtoincreaseabout1percent.U.S.retailweightpercapitadisappearanceformajorredmeatsandpoultry,2019and202020192020120.097.9100.095.180.058.157.752.452.360.040.016.016.120.0.0BroilersBeefPorkTurkeySource:EconomicResearchService,USDAcalculationsfromWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,USDAd
8、ata.ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardBeef/Cattle:Thefirst-quarterproductionforecastwasraisedonafasterpacethanayearagoofcattleslaughteralongwithheavierdressedweights.However,productionfortheremainderoftheyearisreducedonlowerexpectedfedcattleslaughterthatispartiallyoffsetbyhighern
9、onfedcattleslaughter,aswellasbyheavierdressedweights.Slowerbeefdemandandpotentiallyslowerratesofslaughterareexpectedtopressurecattleprices.February’sbeefimportsroseto230.6millionpounds,andthefirst-quarterforecastwasraisedby25millionpoundsbasedonthepaceof
