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1、PREDICTINGFINANCIALDISTRESSOFCOMPANIES:預(yù)測公司財(cái)務(wù)困境：REVISITINGTHEZ-SCOREANDZETAMODELS再論Z-SCORE和ZETAMODELSEdwardI.Altman*PredictingFinancialDistressofCompanies:RevisitingtheZ-ScoreandZETAModelsBackground背景Thispaperdiscussestwoofthevenerablemodelsforassessingthedistressofindustrialcorporatio
2、ns.本文討論兩種評估實(shí)業(yè)公司困境的古老模型。Thesearetheso-calledZ-Scoremodel(1968)andZETA1977)creditriskmodel.他們就是所謂的Z-Score模型（1968）和ZETA信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型。Bothmodelsarestillbeingusedbypractitionersthroughouttheworld.他們至今仍被廣泛的使用著。ThelatterisaproprietarymodelforsubscriberstoZETAServices,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ).后者是ZETAServices
3、,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ)用戶的專用模型。Thepurposeofthissummaryaretwo-fold.這篇總結(jié)的目的有兩個(gè)方面。First,thoseuniquecharacteristicsofbusinessfailuresareexaminedinordertospecifyandquantifythevariableswhichareeffectiveindicatorsandpredictorsofcorporatedistress.首先，檢查那些企業(yè)倒閉的特性用來指出和確定企業(yè)困境有效的指標(biāo)和預(yù)測值的數(shù)量。Bydoingso,Ihope
4、tohighlighttheanalyticaswellasthepracticalvalueinherentintheuseoffinancialratios.如此，我希望強(qiáng)調(diào)財(cái)務(wù)比率運(yùn)用中天生的分析和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。Specifically,asetoffinancialandeconomicratioswillbeanalyzedinacorporatedistresspredictioncontextusingamultiplediscriminantstatisticalmethodology.具體地說，是使用多個(gè)判別統(tǒng)計(jì)方法將一系列財(cái)務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)比率在一個(gè)企業(yè)困境
5、預(yù)期的環(huán)境中進(jìn)行分析。Throughthisexercise,Iwillexplorenotonlythequantifiablecharacteristicsofpotentialbankruptsbutalsotheutilityofamuch-malignedtechniqueoffinancialanalysis:ratioanalysis.通過這個(gè)操作，我不僅將探討潛在破產(chǎn)的可計(jì)量特性，也將探討比率分析——這個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)分析中備受質(zhì)疑的方法的實(shí)用價(jià)值。Althoughthemodelsthatwewilldiscussweredevelopedinthelate
6、1960’sandmid-1970’s,Iwillextendourtestsandfindingstoincludeapplicationtofirmsnottradedpublicly,tonon-manufacturingentities,andalsorefertoanewbond-ratingequivalentmodelforemergingmarketscorporatebonds.將被討論的模型在20世紀(jì)60年代末期和70年代中期已經(jīng)成熟，盡管如此，我會(huì)把測驗(yàn)和研究結(jié)果拓展至包含未上市企業(yè)的申請和非制造業(yè)團(tuán)體，也會(huì)結(jié)合新型市場公司債券的債券評級等值模
7、型。ThelatterutilizesaversionoftheZ-ScoremodelcalledZ”.后者用的是Z-Score的一個(gè)變型，稱作“Z”。Thispaperalsoupdatesthepredictivetestsondefaultsandbankruptciesthroughtheyear1999.本文亦更新預(yù)測性測試數(shù)值和1999年的破產(chǎn)。AsIfirstwrotein1968,anditseemseventruerinthelate1990’s,academiciansseemtobemovingtowardtheeliminationof
