資源描述：
《bracketing decisions》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在工程資料-天天文庫。
1、BracketingDecisions6Consideryourfriendwhohasa?nalpaperdueinarelativelyimportantclass.Thepaperwillbeworthabouthalfofhisgradeintheclass.ItisFridayat7:00P.M.,andhemustcompletethepaperbyMondaymorningat9:00A.M.Hebelievesthatthepaperwilltakeaboutsixhoursofhardworktocomplete.However,heisinthemiddleofar
2、ole-playingvideogameandisreallyitchingtoplaythegameforatleastanother20minutesbeforedivingintohispaper.Uponconsideringhisoptions,hebelievesthe20minuteswillnotsethimbacktoofarbecauseitissuchasmallamountoftime.Further,the20minuteswouldnotallowhimtomakeverymuchprogressatallonhispaperrelativetotheamo
3、untofprogresshemightbeabletomakeonthegame.Thus,hedecidestoplay.About20minuteslater,hefacesthesamedecision.But20minutesstillseemslikesuchashortperiodcomparedtotheamountoftimehehasleftto?nishthepaper.So,hecontinuestoplay.Atabout3:00A.M.,afterplayingforeighthours,hedecidestogotobedandworkonthepaper
4、thenextday.Heregretstheamountoftimehespentplayingvideogames,andrealizesthathecouldhavemadesigni?cantprogressonthepaperandcouldperhapshavecompleteditbythen.Helaments,“HowcouldIhaveplayedvideogamesforeighthoursinsteadofworkingonmypaper?”Consider,alternatively,acompanyheadedbytwopeople:aCEOandapres
5、identofoperations.TheCEOhasultimateresponsibilityforthecompany,andthepresidentdirectlyoverseestheeightteamleaderswhomakeuptheseniormanagement.Eachoftheteamleadershassomeautonomyandcandecideontheparticularprojectsthattheywillundertake.TheCEOisworriedthatalthoughthecompanyispro?table,pro?tsaresmal
6、lerthanshewouldlike.Wonderingtherootcauseoftheproblem,shecallsonthepresidenttoconsidertheproblem.Thepresidentmeetsonebyonewitheachteamleader,askingfordetailedaccountsoftheirdecision-makingprocess.He?ndsthateachhasengagedinrelativelysafeprojects.Aswell,eachhasturneddownsomeriskyprojects.Forexampl
7、e,atypicalriskyprojectwouldreturn$20millionwithabout50percentprobabilityandlose$10millionwith50percentprobability.Consideringtheoverallbudgetofthisindividualteamisonlyaround$20million,thepresidentconsidersthedecisiontoscuttl
