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1、14BankCreditCyclesGARYB.GORTONANDPINGHE*14.1.INTRODUCTIONTheessenceofbankingisthedeterminationastowhetherapotentialborroweriscredit-worthy,thatis,whetherthepotentialborrowermeetsthebankscreditstandards.Wheneachbankmakesthisdetermination,itdoessoincompetitionwithotherbanks,eachwithitsownpr
2、oprietarylendingstandards.Inthispaperweanalyzethisbankcompetition,presentingarepeatedgameofbanklending,inthestyleofGreenandPorter(1984),inwhichbankscanchangetheirlend-ingstandards.Inthetheoreticalmodel,weshowthatthebankcompetitionforborrowersleadstoperiodiccreditcrunches,swingsbetweenhigha
3、ndlowcreditallocations.Thereasonisthatbanklendingstandardsvarythroughtimeduetostrategicinteractionbetweencompetingbanks.Creditcyclescanoccurwithoutanychangeinthemacroeconomicenvironment.Wethengoontoempiricallyinvestigatethislendingstandardmodel,provid-ingempiricalevidencethatbankcreditcycl
4、esareanimportantautonomouspartofbusinesscycledynamics.Empiricalteststakeadvantageoftheuniqueinfor-mationenvironmentinU.S.banking,wheredetailedinformationaboutrivalbanksiscollectedandreleasedperiodicallybythebankregulators.Thus,theinformationthatisthebasisforbanksbeliefsaboutrivalbankslendi
5、ngstan-dardsisobservabletotheeconometrician.Thisallowsforanovelapproach*WethankYacineAit-Sahalia,BernardSalanié,KentDaniel,SteveDavis,XavierGabaix,ArmandoGomes,CharlesKahn,AnilKashyap,RichardKihlstrom,NarayanaKocherlakota,RobMcMillan,GeorgeMailath,StewartMayhew,BenPolak,EricRosengren,Geert
6、Rouwenhorst,JoséScheinkman,HyunShin,NickSouleles,JeremyStein,twoanonymousreferees,andseminarparticipantsatPrinceton,Yale,Duke,Chicago,Tsinghua,theNewYorkFederalReserveBank,theU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission,MoodysInvestorsServicesandtheNBERConferenceonCapitalMarketsandtheEconomyforthei
7、rcommentsandsuggestions.408WHATDOBANKSDO?totestingtherepeatedgame.Weproposedirectmeasuresoftheinformationthatthetheorysuggestsarerelevantforbanksbeliefs.Weusethesemeasuresasproxiesforthebeliefsthemselvesandshowhowtheseproxiesdrivethecreditcycle.Banklendingiscl
