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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc29JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201020:46PrinterName:Hamilton29In?ationSoundanalysisandforecastingofthe?nancialperformanceofcompaniesinhigh-in?ationenvironmentsischallenging.In?ationdistortsthe?nancialstate-ments,addingtothedif?cultyofmakingyear-
2、to-yearhistoricalcomparisons,ratioanalyses,andperformanceforecasts.AlthoughallthefamiliartoolsdescribedinPartTwostillapplyintimesofhighin?ation,suchtimescausesomeparticularcomplicationsthatwediscussinthischapter:Historyshowsthatin?ationleadstolowervaluec
3、reationincompanies,becauseiterodesreal-termsfreecash?ow(FCF)andincreasesthecostofcapital.Historicalanalysisofacompany’sperformancewhenin?ationishighrequiresadditionalmetricsinrealterms.Financialprojectionsofacompany’sfutureperformanceshouldbemadeinbothn
4、ominalandrealtermswheneverpossible.Asweexplaininthischapter,whenin?ationishigh,analysisandvaluationdependoninsightsfrombothnominal-andreal-termsapproaches.Nominalindicatorsaresometimesnotmeaningful(e.g.forcapitalturnover),andinothercases,realindicatorsare
5、problematic(e.g.,whendeterminingcorporateincometaxes).Butwhenproperlyapplied,valuationsinrealandnominaltermsshouldyieldanidenticalvalue.INFLATIONLEADSTOLOWERVALUECREATIONSincethe1980s,in?ationhasgenerallybeenmildinthedevelopedeconomiesofEuropeandNorthAmer
6、icaatlevelsaround2to3percentperyear.Butthisdoesnotmeanin?ationhasbecomeirrelevant.AsExhibit29.1shows,the605P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc29JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201020:46PrinterName:Hamilton606INFLATIONEXHIBIT29.1–HistoricalInflationinDevelopedEconomiesAnnualin?ationr
7、ate,percentJapanConsumerPriceIndexNationalMeasure25U.K.RetailPriceIndex2015EuroAreaConsumerPriceIndex10U.S.ConsumerPriceIndex501959196419691974197919841989199419992004–5Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,OfficeforNationalStatistics,Eurostat,StatisticsBureauof
8、theMinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunication(MIC),Japan.situationwasquitedifferentinthe1970s,whenin?ationhoveredaround10percentforthesameeconomies.Someeconomistswarnofareturnofsuchin?ationlevels,asgovernmentde?citsh
