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1、4IntroductiontoRiskManagementBusiness,likelife,isinherentlyrisky.Firmsconvertinputssuchaslabor,rawmaterials,andmachinesintogoodsandservices.A?rmispro?tableifthecostofwhatitproducesexceedsthecostoftheinputs.Pricescanchange,however,andwhatappearstobeapro?tableactivitytodaymaynotbepro?tableto
2、morrow.Manyinstrumentsareavailablethatpermit?rmstohedgevariousrisks,rangingfromcommoditypricestoweather.A?rmthatactivelyusesderivativesandothertechniquestoalteritsriskandprotectitspro?tabilityisengaginginriskmanagement.Inthischapterwetakealookathowderivatives—suchasforwards,calls,andputs—a
3、reusedinpracticetomanagerisk.Webeginbyexaminingtwohypothetical?rms—Golddiggers,agold-mining?rm,andAuricEnterprises,amanufacturerusinggoldasaninput—toseewhatriskstheyfaceandtodemonstratetheuseofderivativesstrategiestomanagethoserisks.Afterlookingattheseexamples,wewillexploresomereasons?rmss
4、eektomanageriskinthe?rstplace.4.1BASICRISKMANAGEMENT:THEPRODUCER’SPERSPECTIVEGolddiggersisagold-mining?rmplanningtomineandsell100,000ouncesofgoldoverthenextyear.Forsimplicity,wewillassumethattheysellallofthenextyear’sproductionprecisely1yearfromtoday,receivingwhateverthegoldpriceisthatday.
5、Thepriceofgoldtodayis$405/oz.Wewillignoreproductionbeyondthenextyear.ObviouslyGolddiggers—likeanyproducer—hopesthatthegoldpricewillriseoverthenextyear.However,Golddiggers’smanagementcomputesestimatednetincomeforarangeofpossiblepricesofgoldin1year(Table4.1).ThenetincomecalculationshowsthatG
6、olddiggers’spro?tisaffectedbygoldprices.ShouldGolddiggerssimplyshutthemineifgoldpricesfallenoughtomakenetincomenegative?Theanswerdependsontheextenttowhichcostsare?xed.The?rmincursthe?xedcostwhetherornotitproducesgold.Variablecostsareincurredonlyifthemineoperates.Thus,foranygoldpriceaboveth
7、evariablecostof$50/oz,itwillmakesensetoproducegold.11.Supposethatthegoldpriceis$350/oz.IfGolddiggersproducesnogold,the?rmlosesits?xedcost,whichweassumetobe$33,000,000.Withproductionof100,000ounces,thisisanaveragecostof$330/oz.8990Chapter4.IntroductiontoRiskMan
