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1、ARTICLEINPRESSEuropeanEconomicReview50(2006)223–247www.elsevier.com/locate/econbaseRevisitingtheeffectsofregionaltradeagreementsontrade?owswithproperspeci?cationofthegravitymodelCe`lineCarre`reCERDI-CNRS,Universite′dAuvergne,65BdFranc-oisMitterrand,63000Clermont-Ferran
2、dCedex163009,FranceReceived28June2002;accepted7May2004Availableonline28October2004AbstractThispaperusesagravitymodeltoassessex-postregionaltradeagreements.Themodelincludes130countriesandisestimatedwithpaneldataovertheperiod1962–1996.Theintroductionofthecorrectnumberofdu
3、mmyvariablesallowsforidenti?cationofVineriantradecreationandtradediversioneffects,whiletheestimationmethodtakesintoaccounttheunobservablecharacteristicsofeachpairsoftradepartnercountries,theendogeneityofsomeoftheexplanatoryvariablesaswellasapotentialselectionbias.Incont
4、rasttopreviousestimates,resultsshowthatregionalagreementshavegeneratedasigni?cantincreaseintradebetweenmembers,oftenattheexpenseoftherestoftheworld.r2004ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.JELclassi?cation:F11;F15;C23Keywords:Regionaltradeagreements;Gravityequation;Tradecreat
5、ion;Tradediversion;Paneldata1.IntroductionAfteralongperiodofneglectfromthelate1960stothelate1980s,thegravitytrademodelhasacquiredasecondyouth.First,newtheoreticalfoundationshaveTel.:+33-473-17-74-00;fax:+33-473-17-74-28.E-mailaddress:c.carrere@cerdi.u-clermont1.fr(C.Ca
6、rre`re).0014-2921/$-seefrontmatterr2004ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.06.001ARTICLEINPRESS224C.Carre`re/EuropeanEconomicReview50(2006)223247beenproposedbothwiththeadventoftradetheoriesbasedonincreasingreturnstoscale,inimperfectlycompetitivem
7、arketsand?rm-levelproductdifferentiation(HelpmanandKrugman,1985;Bergstrand,1985,1989;BaierandBergstrand,2001;EvenettandKeller,2002)and,withinaperfectcompetitionsetting,withproductdifferentiationatthenationallevel(Deardorff,1998;AndersonandVanWincoop,2003).Second,thegrav
8、itymodelhasbeenusedextensivelytostudytradepatterns,asforexampleinthecaseofthedrasticchangesfollowingthedemiseo
