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1、SouthAfrica:RiskybusinessAuthor:?SouthAfricaneventriskwillbeelevatednextweekbykeyinflationdata,thecentralbank’sJeffreySchultzratedecisionandtwoscheduledsovereignratingsreviews.SeniorEconomistBNPParibasSouthAfrica?WednesdayshouldseeamoderationinOctober’sheadlineCPIinflationbackbelow5%,but
2、theSARBislikelytowarnthatthebalanceofriskstotheinflationoutlookhasworsened.?Thursday’smeetingofthemonetarypolicycommitteeislikelytoproducealessdividedon-holddecision,thoughwedonotthinkthiswouldnecessarilymarkanendtoratecutsyet.?Fridaylookssettosendatleastoneofthelocal-currencysovereignde
3、btratingsinto‘junk’.WeexpectS&Ptodowngradeitduetoaworseningfiscaloutlookandrisingpoliticalrisks.InflationdatakickoffanNextweekisanimportantoneontheSouthAfricancalendar:onWednesday,thereleaseofimportantweekOctoberCPIdatawillbewatchedmorecloselythanusual;onThursday,themonetarypolicycommitt
4、eeoftheSouthAfricanReserveBank(SARB)willmeetforthelasttimethisyear;andonFriday,bothS&PandMoody’swillreleasesovereigncreditratingsreviews.OctoberCPItohaveWeexpectheadlineconsumerpriceinflationtohavemoderatedto4.9%y/yinOctoberfromslowedbackbelow5.0%...5.1%inSeptember,withamonth-on-monthrat
5、eof0.4%.Muchoftheslowdownislikelytobedrivenbyafurthersofteninginfoodpricemomentum,aslightlysmaller(albeitstillhigh)contributionfromfuelpricesandsupressedpricesofvehiclesandotherdurableandsemi-durablegoods.CoreCPIinflationislikelytohaveprintedmodestlyhigher(to4.7%y/yfrom4.6%,wethink),note
6、noughtoderailourviewthatunderlyinginflationislikelytoremainwellcontainedataroundthemid-pointoftheSARB’s3–6%inflationtargetbandthroughout2018.…butbalanceofriskstoWhileheadlineinflationislikelytoslowbacktowardsthemid-pointoftheSARB’stargetrangehaverisentowardstheendofthisyearandevenlowerin
7、toQ12018(seeChart1),wethinkthebalanceofrisksfortherand,creditratings,capitaloutflowsandhenceinflationexpectationshasshiftedclearlyhighersinceSeptember’spolicymeeting(Chart2).Assuch,wewouldexpectsomemodestupwardrevisionstothecentralbank’smedium-terminflationestimatesandfur
