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1、9June2017????OntopofthedataECONOMICSASIADown-shiftingfromfifthgear?BroaddecelerationinMayPMIsconfirmsthatactivityalreadyFredericNeumannpeaked,butwedon’texpectasharpdeclineinmomentumEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk?Electronicsoutputshoul
2、dholdupasApple-linkedsuppliers+85228224556acrosstheregiongearupforSeptemberproductlaunchesJosephIncalcaterraEconomist?Still,overallgrowthin2H17willlikelyslow;centralbankscanTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjoseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com.hkeasilyremainonholdfornow,butshould
3、staycautiousinto2018+85228224687JiWonKwonAlthoughdouble-digittradenumbersmaycontinuetoflashacrossthescreen,itisEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedclearthatmomentumalreadypeaked.2017startedwithabang,andwhilethereareji.won.kwon@hsbc.com.hkreasonstobeoptimisticonthegro
4、wthoutlookforcertainimportantindustries(thinkabout+85229966621theupcomingApplelaunchesandtheimpactontheelectronicssector),theoverallexportMaitreyiDasEconomicsAssociatecyclehasloststeam.ThePMIshighlightedweakernewexportordersjustaboutBangaloreeverywhere,despitestrongreadingsintheWest.InC
5、hina,theCaixinmeasureevendippedbelowthewaterline,possiblyareflectionoftighterfinancialconditions.Consumptionhasbeenrelativelysubduedthisyearcomparedtoexports,duetolimitedemploymentandwagegains.Still,consumptionwilllikelybeastablecontributortogrowthin2H,comparedtothepossibilityofaweakerc
6、ontributionfromnetexports.ThisisparticularlythecaseinASEAN,whereconsumerindicatorsarepointingtosomegreenshootsaftermonthsofincrementallyweakerlabourmarketdata.Weremainconcernedaboutprivateinvestment.Somewillrecallthatthiswasaweakspotinmost1QGDPprints,asignthatexportersdon’tnecessarilybe
7、lieveinthelongevityoftheexportcycle.Publicinvestment,ontheotherhand,continuestoserveasagrowthpillaracrosstheregion–evenifinvestmentactivityinthePhilippinesandIndonesiamaymoderatefromahighbaselastyear.Meanwhile,avastpipelineofChinese-fundedprojects,ifimplemented,wouldprovideaboo
