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《巴克萊-美股-中小盤股票策略-美國(guó)2018中小盤策略展望：扭轉(zhuǎn)敗局》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫(kù)。
1、EquityResearch20November2017U.S.Small&MidCapStrategyOutlook2018PlayingCatch-upMACROSTRATEGYU.S.Small&MidCapStrategyWeforecasthealthyreturnsforsmallcapsin2018(+10.5%totalprojectedreturn)VenuKrishna,CFAwithaRussell2000year-endtargetof1625drivenbyareboundinsmall-cap
2、earnings+12125267328andmodestcompressioninvaluationmultiples.Unlikelargecaps,small-capreturnsvenu.krishna@barclays.comBCI,USthusfarin2017havebeenpredominantlydrivenbyvaluationexpansion(+13.1%)asopposedtoearningsgrowth(uponly2.1%).Webelievethispatternisunlikelytoo
3、ccurEliasKrauklisagainin2018.Inourview,asustainedpickupinearningsgrowth,comingoffalow+12125269376base,willremainkeyforsmall-capreturnsin2018.elias.krauklis@barclays.comBCI,USWeexpectareboundinearningsin2018.Webelieveanimprovingbackdropfordomesticgrowthwillbeakeyd
4、riverofearningsgrowthin2018.WeareforecastingEBITDAgrowthof14%forex-financials.Abroadsetofmacroindicators—includingGDPgrowth,consumersentiment,businessconfidence,ISM,employmentnumbers,autosales,factoryorders,andproductivitygrowth—allpointtoarobustdomesticeconomy.W
5、ehavealreadystartedseeingearlysignsofimprovingfundamentals,asoverthelastthreequarterssmall-capsaleshavebeenshowinganupwardtrendandEBITDAgrowthhasalsomovedintopositiveterritory.Numeroustailwindsshouldsupportearningsgrowth.Beyondanimprovingdomesticgrowthoutlook,wes
6、eenumeroustailwindsthatmakeusoptimisticaboutanearningsreboundinsmallcapsin2018:(1)marginsareataninflectionpoint–weprojectahealthy60bpsinmarginimprovement,(2)apickupincapitalspendingshouldtranslateintohighersales–thereallocationofcapitalallocationawayfrombuybacksa
7、ndtowardscapexisevidentacrossmostsmallcapsectors,(3)weexpecttheimprovingtrendinearningsqualitytocontinue,(4)earningsrevisionstrendshavebeenpositive-consensusearningsestimateshavetickedupandaremorepronouncedrelativetolargecaps,and(5)earningscouldgetafurtherboost(~
8、6%-7%)shouldlowercorporatetaxratesbecomeareality.Valuationsarelikelytomoderatebutstillholdatrelativelyhighlevels.Weexpectvaluationstocontractmodestly(~5%)in201
