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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance20February2018SteelPriceTrackerSteelSteelPeriodicalSteelpricescontinuetomoveupacrosstheboardBastianSynagowitzStrongsteelpricemomentumwithscopeforfurthermarginexpansionResearchAnalystEquitiesremai
2、npricedforamargincontraction(vs.spot).However,asdiscussedinourEuropeanSteelOutlook2018,weseeseveralreasons(highglobalprice+41-44-227-3377levels,protectionism,demandandconsolidation)whymarginsmaycontinueToppickstostickorevenexpandfurther(whichwouldimplyfurthersign
3、i?cantearningsArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR28.80Buyupgradesacrossthespace).?Postthepublicationofthedetailsonsection232Source:DeutscheBank(whichwouldbepositiveforallUSexposedassets/players)thekeyquestionsare1)HowwilltheUSGovernmentdecide(decisionisdueby11thApril)and2)h
4、owmayotherregimesreacttorespondtoboththeUSandanypossibleredirectionofmaterialtrade-?ow.OurtoppickisArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousFigure1:HRCpricesbasedonstrongcash?ow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuro
5、peoptionality.1,000950900850HRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE7800750Lastweek,N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE7toE568(upUSD11toUSD704)and700650S.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE1toE551(upUSD4toUSD682).Priceshave600550500risenE51inthepastthreemonths.450400350300USHRCpricesupUSD18;Chines
6、eexportpricesupUSD2250200FebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebUSHRCpriceswereupUSD18lastweek.Thepricedi?erentialwithChina1414141415151515161616161717171718increasedtoUSD240/t.ChineseHRCpriceswereupbyUSD2toUSD585.TheSource:TheSteelIndexspreadbetweenC
7、hineseandS.EuropeanpricesrosetoUSD97,abovethantwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD60,withChinesepricesupE10(upUSD39)inthelastthreemonths.Figure2:RawmaterialpricesUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/tPlate:N.EuropeanpricesdownE1;USpricesupUSD2455
8、0210N.EuropeanpricesweredownE1toE601(upUSD3toUSD744).PricesroseE7500190170450inthepastmonth.S.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE582(upinUSDtermsby150400USD3toUSD721).
