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1、JAPANJapanmacro-strategyTOPIXandMSCIACAsia-ex(inUS$,indexedto100asofstart2011)TheoutlookfortheYen:appreciation140(Jan'11=100)Anon-consensuscall:weforecastamildtrendappreciationoftheYen.AnMSCIACAsiaexJP130TOPIXhistoricallycheapcurrencywithasubstantialcurrentaccountsurplus,weexpect120theprivatesector
2、tostruggletowillinglyrecyclethesurplusinaworldofnarrow110nominalandrealinterestratespreads.Theconsensusisforecastingamild100trenddepreciation(toptablebelow,footnote).90Thetwokeydriversofournon-consensusUS$/￥view,inouropinion,areour80forecastsfor:weaklabourforcegrowthintheleadingeconomiesandfinancia
3、l70repressionfordecadesasgovernmentsstruggletopayforrisingentitlement11spending.Weforecastmoderatetrendgrowthandlowrealandnominalbond01/07/1101/1207/1201/1307/1301/1407/1401/1507/1501/1607/1601/17yieldsglobally.Asaresult,werecommendinvestors:Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June20171)GolongtheYenTO
4、PIX,2014starttolatest(inYen)2)DonothedgetheirYenequitiesexposures17003)ExpectnegativeTOPIXEPSrevisionstocontinue(page2)16004)Rotateoutof‘Cyclicalvalue’intostockswithhighROEs(page2)1500WeexpectTOPIXtocontinuetorange-trade:our12-monthTPis1660,15.01400timesFY2EPS(the12monthstoend-June2019).1300Year-en
5、dUS$/￥Macquarieforecasts1200TOPIXCY11CY12CY13CY14CY15CY16CY17ECY18ECY19E1100Jan/14Jul/14Jan/15Jul/15Jan/16Jul/16Jan/17US$/￥77.686.3105.4119.8120.4117.1108.0106.0104.0Note:Consensus(Junereport)End-September2017112.5,endJune2018113.9Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,June2017Source:ConsensusEconomics,B
6、loomberg,MacquarieResearch,June2017Japan-relatedmacroreportsJapan’sdebt-deleveragingmarathonYenconsiderations:amildtrendappreciationTheUS-JapanrelationshipPressureonYenFinancialrepressionfordecades1)REERnearmulti-decadelowsTostrengthen2)JapanesecurrentaccountsurplustoGDP:substantialTostrengthenMyth
7、-busting:Japanesewages3)10-yearrealbondyieldspreadatlowlevelsNeutral/tostrengthen4)10-yearnominalbondyieldspreadtostayaround230bpToweakenFactoryAsia’s2018-20outlook5)ProactivemonetaryreflationtopersistinJap
