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1、TheCPBregionallabourmarketmodel:atoolforlong-termscenarioconstructionEugèneVerkade*)e.m.verkade@cpb.nlandWouterVermeulen*),**)w.vermeulen@cpb.nl*):CPBNetherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysisP.O.Box80510,2508GM,TheHague**):FreeUniversityAmsterdam,Departmen
2、tofSpatialEconomicsDeBoelelaan1105,1081HV,Amsterdam21SummaryThischapterprovidesabriefintroductiontotheCPBregionallabourmarketmodel.Inaddition,itindicateshowthemodelcanbeusedfortheconstructionoflong-termscenarios,suchasthescenariosthatwillbepresentedinthefor
3、thcomingWelfareandPhysicalSurroundings(WLO)study.ThemainpurposeofthemodelistoprojectthespatialdistributionofpopulationandemploymentintheNetherlands.Asanempiricalfoundation,behaviouralequationsfornetdomesticmigrationandemploymentgrowthhavebeenestimatedon1970
4、-2000regionaltimeseries.Incontrasttothepopularbeliefthat“peoplefollowjobs”,evidencesuggeststhatinthelongrun,employmentadjuststothespatialdistributionofpopulation(so“jobsfollowpeople”).Inthemodel,housingsupplyisamaindeterminantofnetdomesticmigrationandchange
5、sintheregionalpopulationtriggeremploymentgrowth.Thesevariablesareembeddedinconsistentregionallabourmarketaccounts.Asinputs,theCPBregionallabourmarketmodelusesscenariosforanumberofregionaldemographicvariables,aswellasscenariosforthenationaleconomy.Stabilityo
6、ftheprojectionsisenhancedbyequilibriumadjustmentinthemainbehaviouralequations.Furthermore,theoutputscenariosaccountfortime-invariantdifferencesbetweenregions.Thechaptersuggestsanumberofstrategiesforobtainingvariationinregionalscenarios.21IntroductionTheCPBN
7、etherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysishasbuiltaregionallabourmarketmodelfortheNetherlandsthatprojectstheregionaldistributionofpopulationandemploymentWethankJelteHaagsmaforpreparingthedatasetsandforhisassistanceinconstructingtheactualmodel.Helpfuldiscussi
8、onswithourcolleaguesatCPBarealsogratefullyacknowledged..ItwillbeusedintheforthcomingstudyWelfareandPhysicalSurroundingsasatoolfortheconstructionoflong-termquantitativescenarios.Asplanningofresidentiala
